The September 20, 2026 Berlin state election will determine the composition of the Abgeordnetenhaus, which then elects the Governing Mayor and shapes Senate coalitions. Trader consensus reflects a fragmented contest among Stefan Evers (CDU), who replaced Kai Wegner as lead candidate in July following a credibility issue over the administration's blackout response, Elif Eralp (Left Party), Werner Graf (Greens), Steffen Krach (SPD), and Kristin Brinker (AfD). Recent polling volatility, coalition arithmetic uncertainties, and the absence of a clear majority path keep implied probabilities tightly clustered, with no single contender exceeding 45 percent. Late-campaign developments, including voter turnout in key districts or shifts in party alliances, could alter the balance before election night.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNext Governing Mayor of Berlin?
Next Governing Mayor of Berlin?
Elif Eralp 45%
Stefan Evers 32%
Werner Graf 13%
Steffen Krach 5.8%
$16,431 Vol.
$16,431 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
Elif Eralp
45%
Stefan Evers
32%
Werner Graf
13%
Steffen Krach
6%
Kristin Brinker
5%
Elif Eralp 45%
Stefan Evers 32%
Werner Graf 13%
Steffen Krach 5.8%
$16,431 Vol.
$16,431 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
Elif Eralp
$8,012 Vol.
45%
Stefan Evers
$4,982 Vol.
32%
Werner Graf
$1,985 Vol.
13%
Steffen Krach
$661 Vol.
6%
Kristin Brinker
$791 Vol.
5%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Regierender Bürgermeister (Governing Mayor) of Berlin following the specified elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Governing Mayor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Governing Mayor takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The September 20, 2026 Berlin state election will determine the composition of the Abgeordnetenhaus, which then elects the Governing Mayor and shapes Senate coalitions. Trader consensus reflects a fragmented contest among Stefan Evers (CDU), who replaced Kai Wegner as lead candidate in July following a credibility issue over the administration's blackout response, Elif Eralp (Left Party), Werner Graf (Greens), Steffen Krach (SPD), and Kristin Brinker (AfD). Recent polling volatility, coalition arithmetic uncertainties, and the absence of a clear majority path keep implied probabilities tightly clustered, with no single contender exceeding 45 percent. Late-campaign developments, including voter turnout in key districts or shifts in party alliances, could alter the balance before election night.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Regierender Bürgermeister (Governing Mayor) of Berlin following the specified elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Governing Mayor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Governing Mayor takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Regierender Bürgermeister (Governing Mayor) of Berlin following the specified elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Governing Mayor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Governing Mayor takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 7:58 PM ET
Volume
$16,431End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 7:58 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Regierender Bürgermeister (Governing Mayor) of Berlin following the specified elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Governing Mayor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Governing Mayor takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The September 20, 2026 Berlin state election will determine the composition of the Abgeordnetenhaus, which then elects the Governing Mayor and shapes Senate coalitions. Trader consensus reflects a fragmented contest among Stefan Evers (CDU), who replaced Kai Wegner as lead candidate in July following a credibility issue over the administration's blackout response, Elif Eralp (Left Party), Werner Graf (Greens), Steffen Krach (SPD), and Kristin Brinker (AfD). Recent polling volatility, coalition arithmetic uncertainties, and the absence of a clear majority path keep implied probabilities tightly clustered, with no single contender exceeding 45 percent. Late-campaign developments, including voter turnout in key districts or shifts in party alliances, could alter the balance before election night.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Regierender Bürgermeister (Governing Mayor) of Berlin following the specified elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Governing Mayor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Governing Mayor takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Regierender Bürgermeister (Governing Mayor) of Berlin following the specified elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Governing Mayor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Governing Mayor takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$16,431End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 7:58 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The September 20, 2026 Berlin state election will determine the composition of the Abgeordnetenhaus, which then elects the Governing Mayor and shapes Senate coalitions. Trader consensus reflects a fragmented contest among Stefan Evers (CDU), who replaced Kai Wegner as lead candidate in July following a credibility issue over the administration's blackout response, Elif Eralp (Left Party), Werner Graf (Greens), Steffen Krach (SPD), and Kristin Brinker (AfD). Recent polling volatility, coalition arithmetic uncertainties, and the absence of a clear majority path keep implied probabilities tightly clustered, with no single contender exceeding 45 percent. Late-campaign developments, including voter turnout in key districts or shifts in party alliances, could alter the balance before election night.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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