Incumbent Republican Trent Kelly faces Democrat Cliff Johnson in Mississippi's 1st congressional district, a seat rated solidly Republican with a partisan voter index near R+18. Kelly, who has secured reelection by margins exceeding 40 points in prior cycles, encountered no primary opposition, while Johnson emerged from the March 2026 Democratic contest. Forecasters classify the race as safe for the GOP based on consistent voting patterns and fundraising advantages. Trader consensus at 93.5% Republican reflects these structural barriers, though low-probability shifts could arise from major late-cycle developments such as scandals, candidate health issues, or unexpected turnout surges before the November 3, 2026 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMS-01 House Election Winner
MS-01 House Election Winner
$109,873 Vol.
$109,873 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
3%
$109,873 Vol.
$109,873 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$78,142 Vol.
94%
Democratic Party
$31,731 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Trent Kelly faces Democrat Cliff Johnson in Mississippi's 1st congressional district, a seat rated solidly Republican with a partisan voter index near R+18. Kelly, who has secured reelection by margins exceeding 40 points in prior cycles, encountered no primary opposition, while Johnson emerged from the March 2026 Democratic contest. Forecasters classify the race as safe for the GOP based on consistent voting patterns and fundraising advantages. Trader consensus at 93.5% Republican reflects these structural barriers, though low-probability shifts could arise from major late-cycle developments such as scandals, candidate health issues, or unexpected turnout surges before the November 3, 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$109,873End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Trent Kelly faces Democrat Cliff Johnson in Mississippi's 1st congressional district, a seat rated solidly Republican with a partisan voter index near R+18. Kelly, who has secured reelection by margins exceeding 40 points in prior cycles, encountered no primary opposition, while Johnson emerged from the March 2026 Democratic contest. Forecasters classify the race as safe for the GOP based on consistent voting patterns and fundraising advantages. Trader consensus at 93.5% Republican reflects these structural barriers, though low-probability shifts could arise from major late-cycle developments such as scandals, candidate health issues, or unexpected turnout surges before the November 3, 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$109,873End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Trent Kelly faces Democrat Cliff Johnson in Mississippi's 1st congressional district, a seat rated solidly Republican with a partisan voter index near R+18. Kelly, who has secured reelection by margins exceeding 40 points in prior cycles, encountered no primary opposition, while Johnson emerged from the March 2026 Democratic contest. Forecasters classify the race as safe for the GOP based on consistent voting patterns and fundraising advantages. Trader consensus at 93.5% Republican reflects these structural barriers, though low-probability shifts could arise from major late-cycle developments such as scandals, candidate health issues, or unexpected turnout surges before the November 3, 2026 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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