Republican Kurt Alme holds a commanding lead in the Montana Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican tilt in federal contests, unified party support following Steve Daines's late withdrawal and endorsement ahead of the June primaries, and Alme's strong primary performance. Recent polling shows Alme ahead by double digits in a four-way general election matchup against Democrat Alani Bankhead and independent Seth Bodnar, reflecting limited crossover appeal for the opposition candidates and Bodnar's independent bid splitting potential Democratic-leaning votes. Trader consensus at 91 percent for the Republican nominee incorporates Montana's electoral history and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions. Scenarios that could shift odds include a consolidated opposition effort, unusually high independent turnout, or unforeseen developments in the final months before the November vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRepublican 91%
Independent 9.3%
Democrat <1%
$109,616 Vol.
$109,616 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
91%
Independent
9%
Democrat
<1%
Republican 91%
Independent 9.3%
Democrat <1%
$109,616 Vol.
$109,616 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
$55,848 Vol.
91%
Independent
$14,047 Vol.
9%
Democrat
$39,721 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Republican Kurt Alme holds a commanding lead in the Montana Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican tilt in federal contests, unified party support following Steve Daines's late withdrawal and endorsement ahead of the June primaries, and Alme's strong primary performance. Recent polling shows Alme ahead by double digits in a four-way general election matchup against Democrat Alani Bankhead and independent Seth Bodnar, reflecting limited crossover appeal for the opposition candidates and Bodnar's independent bid splitting potential Democratic-leaning votes. Trader consensus at 91 percent for the Republican nominee incorporates Montana's electoral history and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions. Scenarios that could shift odds include a consolidated opposition effort, unusually high independent turnout, or unforeseen developments in the final months before the November vote.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volume
$109,616End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Republican Kurt Alme holds a commanding lead in the Montana Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican tilt in federal contests, unified party support following Steve Daines's late withdrawal and endorsement ahead of the June primaries, and Alme's strong primary performance. Recent polling shows Alme ahead by double digits in a four-way general election matchup against Democrat Alani Bankhead and independent Seth Bodnar, reflecting limited crossover appeal for the opposition candidates and Bodnar's independent bid splitting potential Democratic-leaning votes. Trader consensus at 91 percent for the Republican nominee incorporates Montana's electoral history and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions. Scenarios that could shift odds include a consolidated opposition effort, unusually high independent turnout, or unforeseen developments in the final months before the November vote.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$109,616End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican Kurt Alme holds a commanding lead in the Montana Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican tilt in federal contests, unified party support following Steve Daines's late withdrawal and endorsement ahead of the June primaries, and Alme's strong primary performance. Recent polling shows Alme ahead by double digits in a four-way general election matchup against Democrat Alani Bankhead and independent Seth Bodnar, reflecting limited crossover appeal for the opposition candidates and Bodnar's independent bid splitting potential Democratic-leaning votes. Trader consensus at 91 percent for the Republican nominee incorporates Montana's electoral history and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions. Scenarios that could shift odds include a consolidated opposition effort, unusually high independent turnout, or unforeseen developments in the final months before the November vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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