Republican nominee Kurt Alme holds a commanding lead in Montana’s 2026 Senate race following incumbent Steve Daines’s late withdrawal and endorsement, combined with President Trump’s backing and Alme’s decisive primary victory. The state’s consistent Republican tilt, evidenced by recent presidential and statewide results, underpins trader consensus around a GOP hold. Multiple polls since the June primaries show Alme ahead of independent Seth Bodnar and Democrat Alani Bankhead, with the opposition vote split between the two. Solid Republican ratings from nonpartisan analysts further reflect this positioning. A realistic challenge would require either a major late-cycle shift in voter sentiment or unusually high independent turnout that consolidates anti-Republican support, though current polling and structural factors make such outcomes unlikely before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRepublican 91%
Independent 9.2%
Democrat <1%
$109,616 Vol.
$109,616 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
91%
Independent
9%
Democrat
<1%
Republican 91%
Independent 9.2%
Democrat <1%
$109,616 Vol.
$109,616 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
$55,848 Vol.
91%
Independent
$14,047 Vol.
9%
Democrat
$39,721 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Republican nominee Kurt Alme holds a commanding lead in Montana’s 2026 Senate race following incumbent Steve Daines’s late withdrawal and endorsement, combined with President Trump’s backing and Alme’s decisive primary victory. The state’s consistent Republican tilt, evidenced by recent presidential and statewide results, underpins trader consensus around a GOP hold. Multiple polls since the June primaries show Alme ahead of independent Seth Bodnar and Democrat Alani Bankhead, with the opposition vote split between the two. Solid Republican ratings from nonpartisan analysts further reflect this positioning. A realistic challenge would require either a major late-cycle shift in voter sentiment or unusually high independent turnout that consolidates anti-Republican support, though current polling and structural factors make such outcomes unlikely before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volume
$109,616End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Republican nominee Kurt Alme holds a commanding lead in Montana’s 2026 Senate race following incumbent Steve Daines’s late withdrawal and endorsement, combined with President Trump’s backing and Alme’s decisive primary victory. The state’s consistent Republican tilt, evidenced by recent presidential and statewide results, underpins trader consensus around a GOP hold. Multiple polls since the June primaries show Alme ahead of independent Seth Bodnar and Democrat Alani Bankhead, with the opposition vote split between the two. Solid Republican ratings from nonpartisan analysts further reflect this positioning. A realistic challenge would require either a major late-cycle shift in voter sentiment or unusually high independent turnout that consolidates anti-Republican support, though current polling and structural factors make such outcomes unlikely before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$109,616End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican nominee Kurt Alme holds a commanding lead in Montana’s 2026 Senate race following incumbent Steve Daines’s late withdrawal and endorsement, combined with President Trump’s backing and Alme’s decisive primary victory. The state’s consistent Republican tilt, evidenced by recent presidential and statewide results, underpins trader consensus around a GOP hold. Multiple polls since the June primaries show Alme ahead of independent Seth Bodnar and Democrat Alani Bankhead, with the opposition vote split between the two. Solid Republican ratings from nonpartisan analysts further reflect this positioning. A realistic challenge would require either a major late-cycle shift in voter sentiment or unusually high independent turnout that consolidates anti-Republican support, though current polling and structural factors make such outcomes unlikely before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions