Michigan’s 7th congressional district remains a competitive swing seat centered on Lansing and surrounding suburban and rural counties, where Republican incumbent Tom Barrett seeks a second term after narrow victories in prior cycles. The August 4 Democratic primary produced nominee William Lawrence, a progressive activist who prevailed over more moderate rivals including former ambassador Bridget Brink, setting up a clear general-election contrast. With the primary concluded and no major late developments altering the matchup, trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee a 62.5% implied probability of victory, reflecting the district’s toss-up fundamentals, midterm dynamics, and historical closeness of recent results in this battleground.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMI-07 House Election Winner
MI-07 House Election Winner
$17,127 Vol.
$17,127 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
63%
Republican Party
36%
$17,127 Vol.
$17,127 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$11,746 Vol.
63%
Republican Party
$5,381 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Michigan’s 7th congressional district remains a competitive swing seat centered on Lansing and surrounding suburban and rural counties, where Republican incumbent Tom Barrett seeks a second term after narrow victories in prior cycles. The August 4 Democratic primary produced nominee William Lawrence, a progressive activist who prevailed over more moderate rivals including former ambassador Bridget Brink, setting up a clear general-election contrast. With the primary concluded and no major late developments altering the matchup, trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee a 62.5% implied probability of victory, reflecting the district’s toss-up fundamentals, midterm dynamics, and historical closeness of recent results in this battleground.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:01 PM ET
Volume
$17,127End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Michigan’s 7th congressional district remains a competitive swing seat centered on Lansing and surrounding suburban and rural counties, where Republican incumbent Tom Barrett seeks a second term after narrow victories in prior cycles. The August 4 Democratic primary produced nominee William Lawrence, a progressive activist who prevailed over more moderate rivals including former ambassador Bridget Brink, setting up a clear general-election contrast. With the primary concluded and no major late developments altering the matchup, trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee a 62.5% implied probability of victory, reflecting the district’s toss-up fundamentals, midterm dynamics, and historical closeness of recent results in this battleground.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$17,127End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Michigan’s 7th congressional district remains a competitive swing seat centered on Lansing and surrounding suburban and rural counties, where Republican incumbent Tom Barrett seeks a second term after narrow victories in prior cycles. The August 4 Democratic primary produced nominee William Lawrence, a progressive activist who prevailed over more moderate rivals including former ambassador Bridget Brink, setting up a clear general-election contrast. With the primary concluded and no major late developments altering the matchup, trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee a 62.5% implied probability of victory, reflecting the district’s toss-up fundamentals, midterm dynamics, and historical closeness of recent results in this battleground.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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