Massachusetts's 9th congressional district has maintained a strong Democratic tilt for decades, with no Republican victory since 1994 and the seat last decided by a 13-point margin in 2024. Incumbent Bill Keating holds a clear advantage entering the September 1 primary and November general election, supported by consistent voter registration patterns, fundraising edges, and the district's composition across Cape Cod, the South Shore, and New Bedford suburbs. Rating organizations classify the race as Safe or Solid Democratic, aligning with the current trader consensus reflected in market pricing. A significant shift would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, health development affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Republican performance that overcomes the district's structural partisan baseline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMA-09 House Election Winner
MA-09 House Election Winner
$18,615 Vol.
$18,615 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$18,615 Vol.
$18,615 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$6,824 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$11,792 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Massachusetts's 9th congressional district has maintained a strong Democratic tilt for decades, with no Republican victory since 1994 and the seat last decided by a 13-point margin in 2024. Incumbent Bill Keating holds a clear advantage entering the September 1 primary and November general election, supported by consistent voter registration patterns, fundraising edges, and the district's composition across Cape Cod, the South Shore, and New Bedford suburbs. Rating organizations classify the race as Safe or Solid Democratic, aligning with the current trader consensus reflected in market pricing. A significant shift would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, health development affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Republican performance that overcomes the district's structural partisan baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$18,615End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Massachusetts's 9th congressional district has maintained a strong Democratic tilt for decades, with no Republican victory since 1994 and the seat last decided by a 13-point margin in 2024. Incumbent Bill Keating holds a clear advantage entering the September 1 primary and November general election, supported by consistent voter registration patterns, fundraising edges, and the district's composition across Cape Cod, the South Shore, and New Bedford suburbs. Rating organizations classify the race as Safe or Solid Democratic, aligning with the current trader consensus reflected in market pricing. A significant shift would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, health development affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Republican performance that overcomes the district's structural partisan baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$18,615End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Massachusetts's 9th congressional district has maintained a strong Democratic tilt for decades, with no Republican victory since 1994 and the seat last decided by a 13-point margin in 2024. Incumbent Bill Keating holds a clear advantage entering the September 1 primary and November general election, supported by consistent voter registration patterns, fundraising edges, and the district's composition across Cape Cod, the South Shore, and New Bedford suburbs. Rating organizations classify the race as Safe or Solid Democratic, aligning with the current trader consensus reflected in market pricing. A significant shift would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, health development affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Republican performance that overcomes the district's structural partisan baseline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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