The heavily Democratic partisan composition of Massachusetts' 4th congressional district, reflected in its Solid D rating and partisan voting index exceeding D+11, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Jake Auchincloss faces only a minor primary challenge ahead of the September 1 contest, while the Republican primary produces a presumptive nominee with limited visibility or resources in a state where no GOP candidate has won a House seat since 1994. Recent candidate withdrawals have further consolidated Democratic positioning without altering the general-election trajectory. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or an unprecedented national midterm swing could theoretically reopen the race, though historical base rates and current fundraising patterns indicate such shifts remain low-probability events before November 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMA-04 House Election Winner
MA-04 House Election Winner
$46,864 Vol.
$46,864 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
2%
$46,864 Vol.
$46,864 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$23,264 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$23,600 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic partisan composition of Massachusetts' 4th congressional district, reflected in its Solid D rating and partisan voting index exceeding D+11, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Jake Auchincloss faces only a minor primary challenge ahead of the September 1 contest, while the Republican primary produces a presumptive nominee with limited visibility or resources in a state where no GOP candidate has won a House seat since 1994. Recent candidate withdrawals have further consolidated Democratic positioning without altering the general-election trajectory. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or an unprecedented national midterm swing could theoretically reopen the race, though historical base rates and current fundraising patterns indicate such shifts remain low-probability events before November 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$46,864End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic partisan composition of Massachusetts' 4th congressional district, reflected in its Solid D rating and partisan voting index exceeding D+11, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Jake Auchincloss faces only a minor primary challenge ahead of the September 1 contest, while the Republican primary produces a presumptive nominee with limited visibility or resources in a state where no GOP candidate has won a House seat since 1994. Recent candidate withdrawals have further consolidated Democratic positioning without altering the general-election trajectory. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or an unprecedented national midterm swing could theoretically reopen the race, though historical base rates and current fundraising patterns indicate such shifts remain low-probability events before November 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$46,864End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The heavily Democratic partisan composition of Massachusetts' 4th congressional district, reflected in its Solid D rating and partisan voting index exceeding D+11, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Jake Auchincloss faces only a minor primary challenge ahead of the September 1 contest, while the Republican primary produces a presumptive nominee with limited visibility or resources in a state where no GOP candidate has won a House seat since 1994. Recent candidate withdrawals have further consolidated Democratic positioning without altering the general-election trajectory. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or an unprecedented national midterm swing could theoretically reopen the race, though historical base rates and current fundraising patterns indicate such shifts remain low-probability events before November 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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