**President Lee Jae-myung’s Democratic Party maintains a comfortable majority in South Korea’s 300-seat National Assembly (161 seats for the DP plus aligned independents and smaller parties, totaling around 179), which structurally blocks any realistic impeachment path before the end of 2026.** Impeachment requires Assembly passage followed by Constitutional Court review, but the opposition People Power Party holds only about 109 seats and lacks the numbers or cross-aisle support to advance a motion. Lee took office in June 2025 following Yoon Suk-yeol’s removal, and the DP’s legislative dominance—secured in the 2024 general election—has remained stable through 2026 by-elections. Recent approval-rating declines to the low-to-mid 40s, driven by real estate and property-tax policies plus fallout from local elections and ballot issues, have not triggered formal proceedings or broad political consensus for removal. No major scandals, legislative standoffs, or opposition mobilization have altered this balance in the past month. Traders therefore assign high probability to the “No” outcome, reflecting the institutional barriers and absence of catalysts capable of overcoming the ruling party’s control.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?
Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?
7% chance
$19,133 Vol.
$19,133 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
7% chance
$19,133 Vol.
$19,133 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.**President Lee Jae-myung’s Democratic Party maintains a comfortable majority in South Korea’s 300-seat National Assembly (161 seats for the DP plus aligned independents and smaller parties, totaling around 179), which structurally blocks any realistic impeachment path before the end of 2026.**
Impeachment requires Assembly passage followed by Constitutional Court review, but the opposition People Power Party holds only about 109 seats and lacks the numbers or cross-aisle support to advance a motion. Lee took office in June 2025 following Yoon Suk-yeol’s removal, and the DP’s legislative dominance—secured in the 2024 general election—has remained stable through 2026 by-elections.
Recent approval-rating declines to the low-to-mid 40s, driven by real estate and property-tax policies plus fallout from local elections and ballot issues, have not triggered formal proceedings or broad political consensus for removal. No major scandals, legislative standoffs, or opposition mobilization have altered this balance in the past month. Traders therefore assign high probability to the “No” outcome, reflecting the institutional barriers and absence of catalysts capable of overcoming the ruling party’s control.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ET
Volume
$19,133End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.**President Lee Jae-myung’s Democratic Party maintains a comfortable majority in South Korea’s 300-seat National Assembly (161 seats for the DP plus aligned independents and smaller parties, totaling around 179), which structurally blocks any realistic impeachment path before the end of 2026.**
Impeachment requires Assembly passage followed by Constitutional Court review, but the opposition People Power Party holds only about 109 seats and lacks the numbers or cross-aisle support to advance a motion. Lee took office in June 2025 following Yoon Suk-yeol’s removal, and the DP’s legislative dominance—secured in the 2024 general election—has remained stable through 2026 by-elections.
Recent approval-rating declines to the low-to-mid 40s, driven by real estate and property-tax policies plus fallout from local elections and ballot issues, have not triggered formal proceedings or broad political consensus for removal. No major scandals, legislative standoffs, or opposition mobilization have altered this balance in the past month. Traders therefore assign high probability to the “No” outcome, reflecting the institutional barriers and absence of catalysts capable of overcoming the ruling party’s control.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$19,133End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**President Lee Jae-myung’s Democratic Party maintains a comfortable majority in South Korea’s 300-seat National Assembly (161 seats for the DP plus aligned independents and smaller parties, totaling around 179), which structurally blocks any realistic impeachment path before the end of 2026.** Impeachment requires Assembly passage followed by Constitutional Court review, but the opposition People Power Party holds only about 109 seats and lacks the numbers or cross-aisle support to advance a motion. Lee took office in June 2025 following Yoon Suk-yeol’s removal, and the DP’s legislative dominance—secured in the 2024 general election—has remained stable through 2026 by-elections. Recent approval-rating declines to the low-to-mid 40s, driven by real estate and property-tax policies plus fallout from local elections and ballot issues, have not triggered formal proceedings or broad political consensus for removal. No major scandals, legislative standoffs, or opposition mobilization have altered this balance in the past month. Traders therefore assign high probability to the “No” outcome, reflecting the institutional barriers and absence of catalysts capable of overcoming the ruling party’s control.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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