**President Lee Jae-myung holds office with constitutional protections that sharply limit the prospect of arrest before 2027.** Article 84 of the South Korean constitution grants sitting presidents immunity from criminal prosecution on most pre-existing charges, except for insurrection or treason. Courts have indefinitely postponed multiple ongoing cases involving election-law violations, bribery, corruption, and misuse of public funds that predate his June 2025 inauguration. No new indictments or legislative efforts to strip these protections have advanced as of mid-2026. Opposition complaints, including recent election-law filings, have not produced arrest warrants or impeachment proceedings. Traders price the “No” outcome at 92% because the institutional barriers—presidential immunity, suspended proceedings, and absence of qualifying new charges—remain firmly in place through the December 31, 2026 resolution window. Late-term legal maneuvers or extraordinary political shifts could still alter the outlook, yet none have materialized to shift the current consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
8% chance
$529,271 Vol.
$529,271 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
8% chance
$529,271 Vol.
$529,271 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**President Lee Jae-myung holds office with constitutional protections that sharply limit the prospect of arrest before 2027.** Article 84 of the South Korean constitution grants sitting presidents immunity from criminal prosecution on most pre-existing charges, except for insurrection or treason. Courts have indefinitely postponed multiple ongoing cases involving election-law violations, bribery, corruption, and misuse of public funds that predate his June 2025 inauguration.
No new indictments or legislative efforts to strip these protections have advanced as of mid-2026. Opposition complaints, including recent election-law filings, have not produced arrest warrants or impeachment proceedings. Traders price the “No” outcome at 92% because the institutional barriers—presidential immunity, suspended proceedings, and absence of qualifying new charges—remain firmly in place through the December 31, 2026 resolution window. Late-term legal maneuvers or extraordinary political shifts could still alter the outlook, yet none have materialized to shift the current consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ET
Volume
$529,271End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**President Lee Jae-myung holds office with constitutional protections that sharply limit the prospect of arrest before 2027.** Article 84 of the South Korean constitution grants sitting presidents immunity from criminal prosecution on most pre-existing charges, except for insurrection or treason. Courts have indefinitely postponed multiple ongoing cases involving election-law violations, bribery, corruption, and misuse of public funds that predate his June 2025 inauguration.
No new indictments or legislative efforts to strip these protections have advanced as of mid-2026. Opposition complaints, including recent election-law filings, have not produced arrest warrants or impeachment proceedings. Traders price the “No” outcome at 92% because the institutional barriers—presidential immunity, suspended proceedings, and absence of qualifying new charges—remain firmly in place through the December 31, 2026 resolution window. Late-term legal maneuvers or extraordinary political shifts could still alter the outlook, yet none have materialized to shift the current consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$529,271End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**President Lee Jae-myung holds office with constitutional protections that sharply limit the prospect of arrest before 2027.** Article 84 of the South Korean constitution grants sitting presidents immunity from criminal prosecution on most pre-existing charges, except for insurrection or treason. Courts have indefinitely postponed multiple ongoing cases involving election-law violations, bribery, corruption, and misuse of public funds that predate his June 2025 inauguration. No new indictments or legislative efforts to strip these protections have advanced as of mid-2026. Opposition complaints, including recent election-law filings, have not produced arrest warrants or impeachment proceedings. Traders price the “No” outcome at 92% because the institutional barriers—presidential immunity, suspended proceedings, and absence of qualifying new charges—remain firmly in place through the December 31, 2026 resolution window. Late-term legal maneuvers or extraordinary political shifts could still alter the outlook, yet none have materialized to shift the current consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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