Lai Ching-te's fixed four-year presidential term, which runs through May 2028 following his May 2024 inauguration, underpins trader expectations that he will remain in office through the end of 2026. A May 2026 impeachment motion advanced by opposition parties in the Legislative Yuan failed to secure the required two-thirds supermajority, reflecting the structural barriers to early removal in Taiwan's system. Ongoing diplomatic engagements, defense policy statements, and party leadership continuity further signal stable incumbency with no verified health, resignation, or constitutional triggers. While late-term events such as a successful legislative override, major scandal, or sudden incapacity could theoretically alter the trajectory, current institutional and electoral dynamics sustain the market's strong consensus against an early exit.