Erdoğan's constitutional term as Turkish president runs through 2028 following his 2023 reelection, with the next scheduled vote set for that year and no snap election or parliamentary dissolution called in the interim. Reports of health concerns, including verbal slips and fatigue, have circulated through mid-2026 without triggering official incapacity proceedings or a leadership transition. The ruling AKP maintains firm control over institutions, while opposition figures face legal setbacks that reduce near-term pressure. These structural and political factors underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability for "No," consistent with patterns of incumbency stability absent acute crises.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedErdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
6% chance
$612,165 Vol.
$612,165 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Earn 3.25%
6% chance
$612,165 Vol.
$612,165 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Earn 3.25%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Erdoğan's constitutional term as Turkish president runs through 2028 following his 2023 reelection, with the next scheduled vote set for that year and no snap election or parliamentary dissolution called in the interim. Reports of health concerns, including verbal slips and fatigue, have circulated through mid-2026 without triggering official incapacity proceedings or a leadership transition. The ruling AKP maintains firm control over institutions, while opposition figures face legal setbacks that reduce near-term pressure. These structural and political factors underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability for "No," consistent with patterns of incumbency stability absent acute crises.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2025, 7:36 PM ET
Volume
$612,165End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2025, 7:36 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Erdoğan's constitutional term as Turkish president runs through 2028 following his 2023 reelection, with the next scheduled vote set for that year and no snap election or parliamentary dissolution called in the interim. Reports of health concerns, including verbal slips and fatigue, have circulated through mid-2026 without triggering official incapacity proceedings or a leadership transition. The ruling AKP maintains firm control over institutions, while opposition figures face legal setbacks that reduce near-term pressure. These structural and political factors underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability for "No," consistent with patterns of incumbency stability absent acute crises.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$612,165End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2025, 7:36 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Erdoğan's constitutional term as Turkish president runs through 2028 following his 2023 reelection, with the next scheduled vote set for that year and no snap election or parliamentary dissolution called in the interim. Reports of health concerns, including verbal slips and fatigue, have circulated through mid-2026 without triggering official incapacity proceedings or a leadership transition. The ruling AKP maintains firm control over institutions, while opposition figures face legal setbacks that reduce near-term pressure. These structural and political factors underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability for "No," consistent with patterns of incumbency stability absent acute crises.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions