Joseph Aoun's election by Lebanon's parliament in January 2025 for a standard six-year term, ending in 2031, anchors the current trader consensus reflected in the 95.5% probability against his departure by December 31. As a consensus candidate with cross-factional and international backing, including from the United States, Aoun has remained in office through ongoing regional tensions and diplomatic efforts, such as his July 2026 White House meetings focused on Israeli withdrawals and state authority. No parliamentary moves, constitutional triggers, or public statements indicate early resignation, vacancy, or removal proceedings. While unforeseen events like health developments or sudden political realignments could theoretically shift timelines before year-end, the absence of any such catalysts in recent months sustains the market's strong expectation of continuity.