Idaho's 2nd congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in the incumbent Mike Simpson's 2024 reelection margin and his decisive May 2026 primary victory over challengers. The general election matchup pits Simpson against Democrat Elinor Gilbreath on November 3, with no major recent polling shifts, scandals, or national political developments altering the landscape. Traders assign Republican Party an implied probability near 93.5 percent, consistent with the seat's electoral history and limited Democratic infrastructure in eastern and northern Idaho areas. Potential disruptions remain low-probability and would likely require late-cycle events such as candidate health issues, major turnout anomalies, or unexpected national headwinds to meaningfully narrow the gap before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedID-02 House Election Winner
ID-02 House Election Winner
$30,364 Vol.
$30,364 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
7%
$30,364 Vol.
$30,364 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$13,015 Vol.
94%
Democratic Party
$17,350 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Idaho's 2nd congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in the incumbent Mike Simpson's 2024 reelection margin and his decisive May 2026 primary victory over challengers. The general election matchup pits Simpson against Democrat Elinor Gilbreath on November 3, with no major recent polling shifts, scandals, or national political developments altering the landscape. Traders assign Republican Party an implied probability near 93.5 percent, consistent with the seat's electoral history and limited Democratic infrastructure in eastern and northern Idaho areas. Potential disruptions remain low-probability and would likely require late-cycle events such as candidate health issues, major turnout anomalies, or unexpected national headwinds to meaningfully narrow the gap before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$30,364End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Idaho's 2nd congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in the incumbent Mike Simpson's 2024 reelection margin and his decisive May 2026 primary victory over challengers. The general election matchup pits Simpson against Democrat Elinor Gilbreath on November 3, with no major recent polling shifts, scandals, or national political developments altering the landscape. Traders assign Republican Party an implied probability near 93.5 percent, consistent with the seat's electoral history and limited Democratic infrastructure in eastern and northern Idaho areas. Potential disruptions remain low-probability and would likely require late-cycle events such as candidate health issues, major turnout anomalies, or unexpected national headwinds to meaningfully narrow the gap before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$30,364End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Idaho's 2nd congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in the incumbent Mike Simpson's 2024 reelection margin and his decisive May 2026 primary victory over challengers. The general election matchup pits Simpson against Democrat Elinor Gilbreath on November 3, with no major recent polling shifts, scandals, or national political developments altering the landscape. Traders assign Republican Party an implied probability near 93.5 percent, consistent with the seat's electoral history and limited Democratic infrastructure in eastern and northern Idaho areas. Potential disruptions remain low-probability and would likely require late-cycle events such as candidate health issues, major turnout anomalies, or unexpected national headwinds to meaningfully narrow the gap before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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