Iowa's 4th congressional district remains a longstanding Republican stronghold with a partisan voting index favoring the GOP by double digits. The open seat, created after incumbent Randy Feenstra launched a gubernatorial bid, drew unopposed Republican nominee Chris McGowan, a local chamber of commerce leader who secured key party endorsements ahead of the June 2026 primary. Democratic nominee Dave Dawson, a former state representative who prevailed in a three-way primary, faces structural barriers in a district that has elected Republicans by wide margins in recent cycles. Trader consensus reflected in the 92.5% Republican probability aligns with these fundamentals, including limited national Democratic targeting of this specific seat. Late developments such as a significant candidate controversy or sharp national partisan swing could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIA-04 House Election Winner
IA-04 House Election Winner
$32,156 Vol.
$32,156 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
7%
$32,156 Vol.
$32,156 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$20,064 Vol.
93%
Democratic Party
$12,091 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Iowa's 4th congressional district remains a longstanding Republican stronghold with a partisan voting index favoring the GOP by double digits. The open seat, created after incumbent Randy Feenstra launched a gubernatorial bid, drew unopposed Republican nominee Chris McGowan, a local chamber of commerce leader who secured key party endorsements ahead of the June 2026 primary. Democratic nominee Dave Dawson, a former state representative who prevailed in a three-way primary, faces structural barriers in a district that has elected Republicans by wide margins in recent cycles. Trader consensus reflected in the 92.5% Republican probability aligns with these fundamentals, including limited national Democratic targeting of this specific seat. Late developments such as a significant candidate controversy or sharp national partisan swing could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$32,156End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Iowa's 4th congressional district remains a longstanding Republican stronghold with a partisan voting index favoring the GOP by double digits. The open seat, created after incumbent Randy Feenstra launched a gubernatorial bid, drew unopposed Republican nominee Chris McGowan, a local chamber of commerce leader who secured key party endorsements ahead of the June 2026 primary. Democratic nominee Dave Dawson, a former state representative who prevailed in a three-way primary, faces structural barriers in a district that has elected Republicans by wide margins in recent cycles. Trader consensus reflected in the 92.5% Republican probability aligns with these fundamentals, including limited national Democratic targeting of this specific seat. Late developments such as a significant candidate controversy or sharp national partisan swing could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,156End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Iowa's 4th congressional district remains a longstanding Republican stronghold with a partisan voting index favoring the GOP by double digits. The open seat, created after incumbent Randy Feenstra launched a gubernatorial bid, drew unopposed Republican nominee Chris McGowan, a local chamber of commerce leader who secured key party endorsements ahead of the June 2026 primary. Democratic nominee Dave Dawson, a former state representative who prevailed in a three-way primary, faces structural barriers in a district that has elected Republicans by wide margins in recent cycles. Trader consensus reflected in the 92.5% Republican probability aligns with these fundamentals, including limited national Democratic targeting of this specific seat. Late developments such as a significant candidate controversy or sharp national partisan swing could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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