Ongoing Houthi attacks and the July 2026 naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels have kept daily transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait suppressed at roughly 20–40 vessels amid rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope and elevated insurance costs. Recent Kpler data showed 25 transits on August 11 and 20 the following day, consistent with a 10-day average near 24 and a roughly 40–50% volume decline from prior levels. These security-driven constraints, compounded by regional U.S.-Iran tensions affecting related chokepoints, underpin trader consensus favoring sub-180 weekly totals as the modal outcome while assigning lower probability to rebounds above 200.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 10?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 10?
<180 48%
180-199 33%
200-219 9%
220+ 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
<180
48%
180-199
33%
200-219
9%
220+
8%
<180 48%
180-199 33%
200-219 9%
220+ 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
<180
$4,952 Vol.
48%
180-199
$1,652 Vol.
33%
200-219
$638 Vol.
9%
220+
$2,025 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Ongoing Houthi attacks and the July 2026 naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels have kept daily transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait suppressed at roughly 20–40 vessels amid rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope and elevated insurance costs. Recent Kpler data showed 25 transits on August 11 and 20 the following day, consistent with a 10-day average near 24 and a roughly 40–50% volume decline from prior levels. These security-driven constraints, compounded by regional U.S.-Iran tensions affecting related chokepoints, underpin trader consensus favoring sub-180 weekly totals as the modal outcome while assigning lower probability to rebounds above 200.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$9,268End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Ongoing Houthi attacks and the July 2026 naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels have kept daily transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait suppressed at roughly 20–40 vessels amid rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope and elevated insurance costs. Recent Kpler data showed 25 transits on August 11 and 20 the following day, consistent with a 10-day average near 24 and a roughly 40–50% volume decline from prior levels. These security-driven constraints, compounded by regional U.S.-Iran tensions affecting related chokepoints, underpin trader consensus favoring sub-180 weekly totals as the modal outcome while assigning lower probability to rebounds above 200.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$9,268End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing Houthi attacks and the July 2026 naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels have kept daily transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait suppressed at roughly 20–40 vessels amid rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope and elevated insurance costs. Recent Kpler data showed 25 transits on August 11 and 20 the following day, consistent with a 10-day average near 24 and a roughly 40–50% volume decline from prior levels. These security-driven constraints, compounded by regional U.S.-Iran tensions affecting related chokepoints, underpin trader consensus favoring sub-180 weekly totals as the modal outcome while assigning lower probability to rebounds above 200.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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