Seven Republican incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election for Class 2 seats expiring in 2027, aligning with the market's strong consensus on that total. Confirmed retirements include Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Steve Daines (Montana), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), and Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma), among others, with announcements spanning late 2025 into early 2026. Two additional Republican senators lost primary contests, though most trader focus centers on formal retirements rather than primary outcomes. Limited further announcements have occurred in recent months, and the absence of major new developments has kept probabilities anchored near the current count. Historical patterns of Senate retirements in midterm cycles and the typical number of open seats provide context for why totals around seven reflect trader assessments of remaining uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7 77%
11 7.7%
5 3.4%
9 2.4%
$101,009 Vol.
$101,009 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<5
1%
5
3%
6
1%
7
77%
8
2%
9
2%
10
2%
11
8%
12+
1%
7 77%
11 7.7%
5 3.4%
9 2.4%
$101,009 Vol.
$101,009 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<5
$22,734 Vol.
1%
5
$17,485 Vol.
3%
6
$27,247 Vol.
1%
7
$16,967 Vol.
77%
8
$4,602 Vol.
2%
9
$2,208 Vol.
2%
10
$1,839 Vol.
2%
11
$2,845 Vol.
8%
12+
$5,082 Vol.
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Seven Republican incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election for Class 2 seats expiring in 2027, aligning with the market's strong consensus on that total. Confirmed retirements include Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Steve Daines (Montana), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), and Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma), among others, with announcements spanning late 2025 into early 2026. Two additional Republican senators lost primary contests, though most trader focus centers on formal retirements rather than primary outcomes. Limited further announcements have occurred in recent months, and the absence of major new developments has kept probabilities anchored near the current count. Historical patterns of Senate retirements in midterm cycles and the typical number of open seats provide context for why totals around seven reflect trader assessments of remaining uncertainty.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$101,009End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Seven Republican incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election for Class 2 seats expiring in 2027, aligning with the market's strong consensus on that total. Confirmed retirements include Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Steve Daines (Montana), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), and Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma), among others, with announcements spanning late 2025 into early 2026. Two additional Republican senators lost primary contests, though most trader focus centers on formal retirements rather than primary outcomes. Limited further announcements have occurred in recent months, and the absence of major new developments has kept probabilities anchored near the current count. Historical patterns of Senate retirements in midterm cycles and the typical number of open seats provide context for why totals around seven reflect trader assessments of remaining uncertainty.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$101,009End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Seven Republican incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election for Class 2 seats expiring in 2027, aligning with the market's strong consensus on that total. Confirmed retirements include Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Steve Daines (Montana), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), and Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma), among others, with announcements spanning late 2025 into early 2026. Two additional Republican senators lost primary contests, though most trader focus centers on formal retirements rather than primary outcomes. Limited further announcements have occurred in recent months, and the absence of major new developments has kept probabilities anchored near the current count. Historical patterns of Senate retirements in midterm cycles and the typical number of open seats provide context for why totals around seven reflect trader assessments of remaining uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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