**Global seismic activity remains subdued in the current window, with no magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes recorded through September 3 despite ongoing USGS monitoring.** The largest event so far was a 6.2 quake in the South Sandwich Islands region on September 2, below the market threshold. August featured multiple 6.0–7.7 events, primarily in Indonesia and South America, but activity has tapered since the period began on August 31. Historical worldwide rates average roughly one to two M6.5+ events per week, yet the current quiet spell and absence of major aftershock sequences or new clusters support the market-implied 64.5% probability of zero qualifying quakes by September 6. Remaining days could see shifts if subduction zones or remote regions produce events, though no immediate triggers appear in official forecasts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 31 - September 6?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 31 - September 6?
0 65%
1 28%
2 8%
3 2.4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
0
65%
1
28%
2
8%
3
2%
4
1%
5
<1%
more than 5
<1%
0 65%
1 28%
2 8%
3 2.4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
0
$2,233 Vol.
65%
1
$417 Vol.
28%
2
$1,043 Vol.
8%
3
$179 Vol.
2%
4
$64 Vol.
1%
5
$157 Vol.
<1%
more than 5
$260 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**Global seismic activity remains subdued in the current window, with no magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes recorded through September 3 despite ongoing USGS monitoring.** The largest event so far was a 6.2 quake in the South Sandwich Islands region on September 2, below the market threshold. August featured multiple 6.0–7.7 events, primarily in Indonesia and South America, but activity has tapered since the period began on August 31. Historical worldwide rates average roughly one to two M6.5+ events per week, yet the current quiet spell and absence of major aftershock sequences or new clusters support the market-implied 64.5% probability of zero qualifying quakes by September 6. Remaining days could see shifts if subduction zones or remote regions produce events, though no immediate triggers appear in official forecasts.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 11:01 AM ET
Volume
$4,353End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 11:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**Global seismic activity remains subdued in the current window, with no magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes recorded through September 3 despite ongoing USGS monitoring.** The largest event so far was a 6.2 quake in the South Sandwich Islands region on September 2, below the market threshold. August featured multiple 6.0–7.7 events, primarily in Indonesia and South America, but activity has tapered since the period began on August 31. Historical worldwide rates average roughly one to two M6.5+ events per week, yet the current quiet spell and absence of major aftershock sequences or new clusters support the market-implied 64.5% probability of zero qualifying quakes by September 6. Remaining days could see shifts if subduction zones or remote regions produce events, though no immediate triggers appear in official forecasts.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$4,353End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 11:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Global seismic activity remains subdued in the current window, with no magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes recorded through September 3 despite ongoing USGS monitoring.** The largest event so far was a 6.2 quake in the South Sandwich Islands region on September 2, below the market threshold. August featured multiple 6.0–7.7 events, primarily in Indonesia and South America, but activity has tapered since the period began on August 31. Historical worldwide rates average roughly one to two M6.5+ events per week, yet the current quiet spell and absence of major aftershock sequences or new clusters support the market-implied 64.5% probability of zero qualifying quakes by September 6. Remaining days could see shifts if subduction zones or remote regions produce events, though no immediate triggers appear in official forecasts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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