OpenAI's GPT-5 series, including variants like GPT-5.6 Sol posting 49.5% on Humanity's Last Exam (HLE), drives current trader sentiment amid Anthropic's Claude models leading the leaderboard at 55-65% as of mid-August 2026. HLE, a 2,500-question expert benchmark released in early 2025, tests graduate-level reasoning across math, physics, biology, and other fields, where scores have climbed rapidly from single digits in 2025 to the mid-50s through iterative large language model improvements in chain-of-thought and agentic capabilities. Competitive dynamics favor Anthropic's recent Claude 5 releases and Google's Gemini 3 variants, pressuring OpenAI to close the gap via undisclosed training advances or post-training optimizations before year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include potential GPT-6 previews or GPT-5.7 updates that could push OpenAI scores higher, though product timelines often slip and benchmark saturation remains a risk. Traders weigh these releases against Anthropic's momentum when assessing implied probabilities for OpenAI claiming the top spot in 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$28,925 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
50%+
88%
55%+
53%
60%+
29%
65%+
9%
70%+
6%
$28,925 Vol.
50%+
$4,388 Vol.
88%
55%+
$12,977 Vol.
53%
60%+
$6,878 Vol.
29%
65%+
$2,810 Vol.
9%
70%+
$1,872 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".OpenAI's GPT-5 series, including variants like GPT-5.6 Sol posting 49.5% on Humanity's Last Exam (HLE), drives current trader sentiment amid Anthropic's Claude models leading the leaderboard at 55-65% as of mid-August 2026. HLE, a 2,500-question expert benchmark released in early 2025, tests graduate-level reasoning across math, physics, biology, and other fields, where scores have climbed rapidly from single digits in 2025 to the mid-50s through iterative large language model improvements in chain-of-thought and agentic capabilities. Competitive dynamics favor Anthropic's recent Claude 5 releases and Google's Gemini 3 variants, pressuring OpenAI to close the gap via undisclosed training advances or post-training optimizations before year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include potential GPT-6 previews or GPT-5.7 updates that could push OpenAI scores higher, though product timelines often slip and benchmark saturation remains a risk. Traders weigh these releases against Anthropic's momentum when assessing implied probabilities for OpenAI claiming the top spot in 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ET
Volume
$28,925End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".OpenAI's GPT-5 series, including variants like GPT-5.6 Sol posting 49.5% on Humanity's Last Exam (HLE), drives current trader sentiment amid Anthropic's Claude models leading the leaderboard at 55-65% as of mid-August 2026. HLE, a 2,500-question expert benchmark released in early 2025, tests graduate-level reasoning across math, physics, biology, and other fields, where scores have climbed rapidly from single digits in 2025 to the mid-50s through iterative large language model improvements in chain-of-thought and agentic capabilities. Competitive dynamics favor Anthropic's recent Claude 5 releases and Google's Gemini 3 variants, pressuring OpenAI to close the gap via undisclosed training advances or post-training optimizations before year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include potential GPT-6 previews or GPT-5.7 updates that could push OpenAI scores higher, though product timelines often slip and benchmark saturation remains a risk. Traders weigh these releases against Anthropic's momentum when assessing implied probabilities for OpenAI claiming the top spot in 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$28,925End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI's GPT-5 series, including variants like GPT-5.6 Sol posting 49.5% on Humanity's Last Exam (HLE), drives current trader sentiment amid Anthropic's Claude models leading the leaderboard at 55-65% as of mid-August 2026. HLE, a 2,500-question expert benchmark released in early 2025, tests graduate-level reasoning across math, physics, biology, and other fields, where scores have climbed rapidly from single digits in 2025 to the mid-50s through iterative large language model improvements in chain-of-thought and agentic capabilities. Competitive dynamics favor Anthropic's recent Claude 5 releases and Google's Gemini 3 variants, pressuring OpenAI to close the gap via undisclosed training advances or post-training optimizations before year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include potential GPT-6 previews or GPT-5.7 updates that could push OpenAI scores higher, though product timelines often slip and benchmark saturation remains a risk. Traders weigh these releases against Anthropic's momentum when assessing implied probabilities for OpenAI claiming the top spot in 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions