Jay Collins leads trader pricing for second place in Florida’s August 18 Republican gubernatorial primary at 72.5 percent implied probability, reflecting his position as sitting lieutenant governor, name recognition from prior state Senate service, military background, and recent local endorsements. Byron Donalds maintains a commanding lead for the nomination itself, backed by President Trump’s endorsement and polling averages near 45–48 percent. James Fishback sits at 26.5 percent for second after prevailing in a July residency challenge filed by the Collins campaign, which kept him on the ballot but highlighted intra-party friction. Paul Renner and other listed candidates trail sharply, consistent with limited polling visibility and fundraising gaps among the fragmented field four days before early voting concludes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJay Collins 73%
James Fishback 27%
Byron Donalds 1.1%
Paul Renner <1%
$47,206 Vol.
$47,206 Vol.
Jay Collins
73%
James Fishback
27%
Byron Donalds
1%
Paul Renner
1%
Jim Holcomb
<1%
Arthur Joseph McCaffrey
<1%
Daniel Nokovich
<1%
Rachel Rodriguez
<1%
James Walker Shaw
<1%
Caneste Succe
<1%
Bobby Williams
<1%
Jay Collins 73%
James Fishback 27%
Byron Donalds 1.1%
Paul Renner <1%
$47,206 Vol.
$47,206 Vol.
Jay Collins
73%
James Fishback
27%
Byron Donalds
1%
Paul Renner
1%
Jim Holcomb
<1%
Arthur Joseph McCaffrey
<1%
Daniel Nokovich
<1%
Rachel Rodriguez
<1%
James Walker Shaw
<1%
Caneste Succe
<1%
Bobby Williams
<1%
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the official results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Jul 10, 2026, 6:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the official results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Jay Collins leads trader pricing for second place in Florida’s August 18 Republican gubernatorial primary at 72.5 percent implied probability, reflecting his position as sitting lieutenant governor, name recognition from prior state Senate service, military background, and recent local endorsements. Byron Donalds maintains a commanding lead for the nomination itself, backed by President Trump’s endorsement and polling averages near 45–48 percent. James Fishback sits at 26.5 percent for second after prevailing in a July residency challenge filed by the Collins campaign, which kept him on the ballot but highlighted intra-party friction. Paul Renner and other listed candidates trail sharply, consistent with limited polling visibility and fundraising gaps among the fragmented field four days before early voting concludes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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