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Politics·Primaries

FL-11 Republican Primary Winner

icon for FL-11 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

FL-11 Republican Primary Winner

Joe Strada 67%

Carey Baker 26%

Tim Wilkins 10%

Ivette Palomo <1%

Polymarket

$17,691 Vol.

Joe Strada 67%

Carey Baker 26%

Tim Wilkins 10%

Ivette Palomo <1%

Polymarket

$17,691 Vol.

Joe Strada

$6,659 Vol.

67%

Carey Baker

$4,757 Vol.

26%

Tim Wilkins

$5,279 Vol.

10%

Ivette Palomo

$511 Vol.

1%

Nizam Razack

$484 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Joe Strada holds the strongest position in the Florida 11th Congressional District Republican primary, set for August 18, reflecting trader consensus on his fundraising edge and visibility in an open seat race after longtime incumbent Daniel Webster's retirement. Strada has outspent rivals, including Carey Baker and Tim Wilkins, through attack advertising and broader outreach, while other candidates like Ivette Palomo and Nizam Razack trail with limited resources. Recent candidate forums and debates have highlighted contrasts in local ties and policy focus, though Strada skipped one prominent event. With the primary days away, spending patterns and early positioning continue to shape implied probabilities ahead of voter turnout in the central Florida district.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$17,691
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 3:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Joe Strada holds the strongest position in the Florida 11th Congressional District Republican primary, set for August 18, reflecting trader consensus on his fundraising edge and visibility in an open seat race after longtime incumbent Daniel Webster's retirement. Strada has outspent rivals, including Carey Baker and Tim Wilkins, through attack advertising and broader outreach, while other candidates like Ivette Palomo and Nizam Razack trail with limited resources. Recent candidate forums and debates have highlighted contrasts in local ties and policy focus, though Strada skipped one prominent event. With the primary days away, spending patterns and early positioning continue to shape implied probabilities ahead of voter turnout in the central Florida district.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$17,691
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 3:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-11 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Joe Strada" at 67%, followed by "Carey Baker" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 67¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 67% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "FL-11 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $17.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "FL-11 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-11 Republican Primary Winner" is "Joe Strada" at 67%, meaning the market assigns a 67% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Carey Baker" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-11 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.