The Republican primary for Florida’s 7th congressional district, scheduled for August 18, 2026, remains tightly contested among incumbent Cory Mills and challengers Ryan Elijah, Michael Johnson, and Sarah Ulrich. Recent polling shows Mills leading with only 28 percent support and Elijah close behind at 22 percent, with a large share of likely Republican primary voters still undecided. This uncertainty, combined with reports of ethics scrutiny facing the incumbent, has kept implied probabilities clustered near even odds for several contenders. Fundraising, local endorsements, and turnout among conservative voters in the Orlando-area district could produce separation in the final days before ballots are cast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRyan Elijah 66%
Cory Mills 27%
Mike Johnson <1%
Sarah Ulrich <1%
$34,446 Vol.
$34,446 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
Ryan Elijah
66%
Cory Mills
27%
Mike Johnson
<1%
Sarah Ulrich
<1%
Ryan Elijah 66%
Cory Mills 27%
Mike Johnson <1%
Sarah Ulrich <1%
$34,446 Vol.
$34,446 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
Ryan Elijah
$9,041 Vol.
66%
Cory Mills
$22,107 Vol.
27%
Mike Johnson
$1,372 Vol.
<1%
Sarah Ulrich
$1,926 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The Republican primary for Florida’s 7th congressional district, scheduled for August 18, 2026, remains tightly contested among incumbent Cory Mills and challengers Ryan Elijah, Michael Johnson, and Sarah Ulrich. Recent polling shows Mills leading with only 28 percent support and Elijah close behind at 22 percent, with a large share of likely Republican primary voters still undecided. This uncertainty, combined with reports of ethics scrutiny facing the incumbent, has kept implied probabilities clustered near even odds for several contenders. Fundraising, local endorsements, and turnout among conservative voters in the Orlando-area district could produce separation in the final days before ballots are cast.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 6:11 PM ET
Volume
$34,446End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 6:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The Republican primary for Florida’s 7th congressional district, scheduled for August 18, 2026, remains tightly contested among incumbent Cory Mills and challengers Ryan Elijah, Michael Johnson, and Sarah Ulrich. Recent polling shows Mills leading with only 28 percent support and Elijah close behind at 22 percent, with a large share of likely Republican primary voters still undecided. This uncertainty, combined with reports of ethics scrutiny facing the incumbent, has kept implied probabilities clustered near even odds for several contenders. Fundraising, local endorsements, and turnout among conservative voters in the Orlando-area district could produce separation in the final days before ballots are cast.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$34,446End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 6:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Republican primary for Florida’s 7th congressional district, scheduled for August 18, 2026, remains tightly contested among incumbent Cory Mills and challengers Ryan Elijah, Michael Johnson, and Sarah Ulrich. Recent polling shows Mills leading with only 28 percent support and Elijah close behind at 22 percent, with a large share of likely Republican primary voters still undecided. This uncertainty, combined with reports of ethics scrutiny facing the incumbent, has kept implied probabilities clustered near even odds for several contenders. Fundraising, local endorsements, and turnout among conservative voters in the Orlando-area district could produce separation in the final days before ballots are cast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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