Skip to main content
icon for FL-07 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

FL-07 Republican Primary Winner

icon for FL-07 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

FL-07 Republican Primary Winner

Ryan Elijah 57%

Cory Mills 41%

Mike Johnson <1%

Sarah Ulrich <1%

Polymarket

$30,356 Vol.

Ryan Elijah 57%

Cory Mills 41%

Mike Johnson <1%

Sarah Ulrich <1%

Polymarket

$30,356 Vol.

icon for Ryan Elijah

Ryan Elijah

$8,875 Vol.

57%

icon for Cory Mills

Cory Mills

$18,183 Vol.

41%

icon for Mike Johnson

Mike Johnson

$1,372 Vol.

<1%

icon for Sarah Ulrich

Sarah Ulrich

$1,926 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The tight contest for the Republican nomination in Florida’s 7th congressional district stems from a fragmented field ahead of the August 18 primary, with incumbent Cory Mills facing challengers Ryan Elijah, Michael Johnson, and Sarah Ulrich. Recent polling shows Mills holding a modest lead but far below majority support, while Elijah remains within striking distance amid widespread undecided voters. Factors sustaining the deadlock include Mills’ ethics scrutiny, absence of endorsements from Governor Ron DeSantis and President Trump, and debate performances that have not consolidated support. Separation could emerge from final voter turnout in key counties, late campaign spending surges, or any new revelations on candidate backgrounds or positions that shift the remaining undecided bloc in the final days.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$30,356
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 6:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The tight contest for the Republican nomination in Florida’s 7th congressional district stems from a fragmented field ahead of the August 18 primary, with incumbent Cory Mills facing challengers Ryan Elijah, Michael Johnson, and Sarah Ulrich. Recent polling shows Mills holding a modest lead but far below majority support, while Elijah remains within striking distance amid widespread undecided voters. Factors sustaining the deadlock include Mills’ ethics scrutiny, absence of endorsements from Governor Ron DeSantis and President Trump, and debate performances that have not consolidated support. Separation could emerge from final voter turnout in key counties, late campaign spending surges, or any new revelations on candidate backgrounds or positions that shift the remaining undecided bloc in the final days.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$30,356
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 6:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Related

icon for Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06?

Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06?

97%
icon for Will Bale Dalton be the FL-07 Democratic nominee?

Will Bale Dalton be the FL-07 Democratic nominee?

97%
icon for Will John Rutherford be the FL-05 Republican nominee?

Will John Rutherford be the FL-05 Republican nominee?

92%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-07 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ryan Elijah" at 57%, followed by "Cory Mills" at 41%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 57¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "FL-07 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $30.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "FL-07 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-07 Republican Primary Winner" is "Ryan Elijah" at 57%, meaning the market assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Cory Mills" at 41%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-07 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.