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Politics·Primaries

FL-02 Republican Primary Winner

icon for FL-02 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

FL-02 Republican Primary Winner

Austin Rogers 73%

Keith Gross 17%

Evan Power 5.5%

Jim Norton 2.7%

Polymarket

$51,195 Vol.

Austin Rogers 73%

Keith Gross 17%

Evan Power 5.5%

Jim Norton 2.7%

Polymarket

$51,195 Vol.

icon for Austin Rogers

Austin Rogers

$20,790 Vol.

73%

icon for Keith Gross

Keith Gross

$20,358 Vol.

17%

icon for Evan Power

Evan Power

$4,249 Vol.

5%

icon for Jim Norton

Jim Norton

$2,200 Vol.

3%

icon for Luke Murphy

Luke Murphy

$1,105 Vol.

1%

icon for Nick Lewis

Nick Lewis

$1,445 Vol.

<1%

icon for Lee Jones

Lee Jones

$537 Vol.

<1%

icon for Audie Rowell

Audie Rowell

$511 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.**Austin Rogers leads the FL-02 Republican primary market at 73% implied probability, well ahead of Keith Gross at 18.5% and lower-priced contenders.** Recent public and internal polling released in early-to-mid August shows Rogers ahead or tied for the lead in the final days before the August 18 primary, with one survey placing him at 25% support compared to Evan Power at 15%, Luke Murphy at 13%, and Gross at 8%. Rogers, a Panama City native and former general counsel to Sen. Rick Scott, benefits from strong local name recognition in the Panhandle and alignment with the district's conservative priorities on border security, law enforcement, and Trump-aligned policies. Gross raised over $12 million—far outpacing Rogers' roughly $1 million—but has trailed in recent surveys amid a crowded field that also includes RPOF Chair Evan Power and others. Trader consensus appears driven by this late polling momentum and Rogers' grassroots positioning in an open-seat race, though the four-day timeline leaves room for last-minute shifts in turnout or undecided voters.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$51,195
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 6:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.**Austin Rogers leads the FL-02 Republican primary market at 73% implied probability, well ahead of Keith Gross at 18.5% and lower-priced contenders.** Recent public and internal polling released in early-to-mid August shows Rogers ahead or tied for the lead in the final days before the August 18 primary, with one survey placing him at 25% support compared to Evan Power at 15%, Luke Murphy at 13%, and Gross at 8%. Rogers, a Panama City native and former general counsel to Sen. Rick Scott, benefits from strong local name recognition in the Panhandle and alignment with the district's conservative priorities on border security, law enforcement, and Trump-aligned policies. Gross raised over $12 million—far outpacing Rogers' roughly $1 million—but has trailed in recent surveys amid a crowded field that also includes RPOF Chair Evan Power and others. Trader consensus appears driven by this late polling momentum and Rogers' grassroots positioning in an open-seat race, though the four-day timeline leaves room for last-minute shifts in turnout or undecided voters.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$51,195
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 6:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-02 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Austin Rogers" at 73%, followed by "Keith Gross" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 73¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "FL-02 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $51.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "FL-02 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-02 Republican Primary Winner" is "Austin Rogers" at 73%, meaning the market assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Keith Gross" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-02 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.