Recent July CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 3.4% year-over-year alongside a modest 0.1% monthly rise, combined with a July jobs report revealing a 23,000 payroll decline and 4.1% unemployment rate, have anchored trader expectations for steady policy. With the federal funds rate held at 3.50%-3.75% since earlier in 2026 amid moderating energy-driven price pressures, the 71.5% implied probability of no change at the October FOMC reflects a market-implied path of stability. A 23.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike captures residual concerns over inflation persistence, while lower probabilities for cuts signal limited downside risks priced in by capital at risk. Key upcoming releases on August and September inflation and labor data will further shape these odds ahead of the meeting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFed Decision in October?
Fed Decision in October?
No change 72%
25 bps increase 24%
25 bps decrease 5%
50+ bps decrease 1.7%
$610,024 Vol.
$610,024 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
5%
No change
72%
25 bps increase
24%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 72%
25 bps increase 24%
25 bps decrease 5%
50+ bps decrease 1.7%
$610,024 Vol.
$610,024 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$125,528 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$157,143 Vol.
5%
No change
$138,730 Vol.
72%
25 bps increase
$133,346 Vol.
24%
50+ bps increase
$55,278 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent July CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 3.4% year-over-year alongside a modest 0.1% monthly rise, combined with a July jobs report revealing a 23,000 payroll decline and 4.1% unemployment rate, have anchored trader expectations for steady policy. With the federal funds rate held at 3.50%-3.75% since earlier in 2026 amid moderating energy-driven price pressures, the 71.5% implied probability of no change at the October FOMC reflects a market-implied path of stability. A 23.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike captures residual concerns over inflation persistence, while lower probabilities for cuts signal limited downside risks priced in by capital at risk. Key upcoming releases on August and September inflation and labor data will further shape these odds ahead of the meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volume
$610,024End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent July CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 3.4% year-over-year alongside a modest 0.1% monthly rise, combined with a July jobs report revealing a 23,000 payroll decline and 4.1% unemployment rate, have anchored trader expectations for steady policy. With the federal funds rate held at 3.50%-3.75% since earlier in 2026 amid moderating energy-driven price pressures, the 71.5% implied probability of no change at the October FOMC reflects a market-implied path of stability. A 23.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike captures residual concerns over inflation persistence, while lower probabilities for cuts signal limited downside risks priced in by capital at risk. Key upcoming releases on August and September inflation and labor data will further shape these odds ahead of the meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$610,024End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 3.4% year-over-year alongside a modest 0.1% monthly rise, combined with a July jobs report revealing a 23,000 payroll decline and 4.1% unemployment rate, have anchored trader expectations for steady policy. With the federal funds rate held at 3.50%-3.75% since earlier in 2026 amid moderating energy-driven price pressures, the 71.5% implied probability of no change at the October FOMC reflects a market-implied path of stability. A 23.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike captures residual concerns over inflation persistence, while lower probabilities for cuts signal limited downside risks priced in by capital at risk. Key upcoming releases on August and September inflation and labor data will further shape these odds ahead of the meeting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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