**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by energy price spikes and Middle East supply risks, is the dominant driver keeping trader consensus clustered around zero or one 25-basis-point hike for all of 2026.** The federal funds rate has remained at 3.50–3.75% through five consecutive meetings as of the July 2026 decision, with the latest CPI print near 3.4–3.5% year-over-year. June FOMC projections showed a median path implying at most one additional increase by year-end, and nine participants saw rates ending 2026 at or above the current range. Recent geopolitical tensions have lifted near-term hike odds in futures markets, yet the broader data—solid but not overheating growth, stable unemployment, and only modest revisions to forecasts—have not shifted the aggregate view toward two or more moves. Market-implied probabilities therefore reflect a skin-in-the-game assessment that any tightening will likely be limited to a single late-2026 adjustment rather than a sustained hiking cycle. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, August CPI and employment releases, and any further escalation in energy markets that could alter the inflation trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
0 (0 bps) 48%
1 (25 bps) 35%
2 (50 bps) 13%
3 (75 bps) 3.4%
$161,177 Vol.
$161,177 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
48%
1 (25 bps)
35%
2 (50 bps)
13%
3 (75 bps)
3%
4 (100 bps)
<1%
5+ (125+ bps)
1%
0 (0 bps) 48%
1 (25 bps) 35%
2 (50 bps) 13%
3 (75 bps) 3.4%
$161,177 Vol.
$161,177 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
$69,433 Vol.
48%
1 (25 bps)
$22,214 Vol.
35%
2 (50 bps)
$39,028 Vol.
13%
3 (75 bps)
$18,614 Vol.
3%
4 (100 bps)
$5,557 Vol.
<1%
5+ (125+ bps)
$6,331 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by energy price spikes and Middle East supply risks, is the dominant driver keeping trader consensus clustered around zero or one 25-basis-point hike for all of 2026.**
The federal funds rate has remained at 3.50–3.75% through five consecutive meetings as of the July 2026 decision, with the latest CPI print near 3.4–3.5% year-over-year. June FOMC projections showed a median path implying at most one additional increase by year-end, and nine participants saw rates ending 2026 at or above the current range. Recent geopolitical tensions have lifted near-term hike odds in futures markets, yet the broader data—solid but not overheating growth, stable unemployment, and only modest revisions to forecasts—have not shifted the aggregate view toward two or more moves.
Market-implied probabilities therefore reflect a skin-in-the-game assessment that any tightening will likely be limited to a single late-2026 adjustment rather than a sustained hiking cycle. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, August CPI and employment releases, and any further escalation in energy markets that could alter the inflation trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Market Opened: Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
Volume
$161,177End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by energy price spikes and Middle East supply risks, is the dominant driver keeping trader consensus clustered around zero or one 25-basis-point hike for all of 2026.**
The federal funds rate has remained at 3.50–3.75% through five consecutive meetings as of the July 2026 decision, with the latest CPI print near 3.4–3.5% year-over-year. June FOMC projections showed a median path implying at most one additional increase by year-end, and nine participants saw rates ending 2026 at or above the current range. Recent geopolitical tensions have lifted near-term hike odds in futures markets, yet the broader data—solid but not overheating growth, stable unemployment, and only modest revisions to forecasts—have not shifted the aggregate view toward two or more moves.
Market-implied probabilities therefore reflect a skin-in-the-game assessment that any tightening will likely be limited to a single late-2026 adjustment rather than a sustained hiking cycle. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, August CPI and employment releases, and any further escalation in energy markets that could alter the inflation trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$161,177End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by energy price spikes and Middle East supply risks, is the dominant driver keeping trader consensus clustered around zero or one 25-basis-point hike for all of 2026.** The federal funds rate has remained at 3.50–3.75% through five consecutive meetings as of the July 2026 decision, with the latest CPI print near 3.4–3.5% year-over-year. June FOMC projections showed a median path implying at most one additional increase by year-end, and nine participants saw rates ending 2026 at or above the current range. Recent geopolitical tensions have lifted near-term hike odds in futures markets, yet the broader data—solid but not overheating growth, stable unemployment, and only modest revisions to forecasts—have not shifted the aggregate view toward two or more moves. Market-implied probabilities therefore reflect a skin-in-the-game assessment that any tightening will likely be limited to a single late-2026 adjustment rather than a sustained hiking cycle. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, August CPI and employment releases, and any further escalation in energy markets that could alter the inflation trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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