California voters will decide Proposition 3 on the November 2026 ballot, a measure to make permanent the higher marginal income tax rates on earners above roughly $360,000 for single filers and $721,000 for joint filers that voters first approved in 2012 and extended through 2030 in 2016. The rates, which generate $5–15 billion annually with most revenue directed to K–12 schools and community colleges, face no scheduled sunset challenges or organized opposition campaigns as of mid-August 2026. Strong backing from the California Teachers Association and allied education groups, combined with prior passage margins of 55% and 63% on comparable extensions, has shaped trader assessments of approval odds. The measure requires only a simple majority, and no legislative or court actions have altered its path since qualification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCalifornia High-Earner Permanent Tax Proposition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 6:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Resolver
0x65070BE91...California voters will decide Proposition 3 on the November 2026 ballot, a measure to make permanent the higher marginal income tax rates on earners above roughly $360,000 for single filers and $721,000 for joint filers that voters first approved in 2012 and extended through 2030 in 2016. The rates, which generate $5–15 billion annually with most revenue directed to K–12 schools and community colleges, face no scheduled sunset challenges or organized opposition campaigns as of mid-August 2026. Strong backing from the California Teachers Association and allied education groups, combined with prior passage margins of 55% and 63% on comparable extensions, has shaped trader assessments of approval odds. The measure requires only a simple majority, and no legislative or court actions have altered its path since qualification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated

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