Recent polling in Berlin, including an INSA survey from July 2026 showing AfD at 19% and ahead for the first time, has kept the contest for third place tightly clustered among AfD, CDU, and the Greens. With the September 20 election weeks away, trader consensus reflects AfD's momentum from national trends and local dissatisfaction, offset by CDU's position in the outgoing coalition government and the Greens' established urban base. The Left party trails with lower implied odds, while smaller parties remain marginal. Any late shifts in turnout among key voter blocs or campaign events on migration and housing could alter relative standings before ballots close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAfD 32%
CDU 31%
Grüne 29%
Linke 9%
$21,488 Vol.
$21,488 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
AfD
32%
CDU
31%
Grüne
29%
Linke
9%
SPD
1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
BSW
<1%
AfD 32%
CDU 31%
Grüne 29%
Linke 9%
$21,488 Vol.
$21,488 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
AfD
$5,074 Vol.
32%
CDU
$5,188 Vol.
31%
Grüne
$3,453 Vol.
29%
Linke
$4,520 Vol.
9%
SPD
$1,246 Vol.
1%
FDP
$674 Vol.
<1%
FW
$582 Vol.
<1%
BSW
$750 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling in Berlin, including an INSA survey from July 2026 showing AfD at 19% and ahead for the first time, has kept the contest for third place tightly clustered among AfD, CDU, and the Greens. With the September 20 election weeks away, trader consensus reflects AfD's momentum from national trends and local dissatisfaction, offset by CDU's position in the outgoing coalition government and the Greens' established urban base. The Left party trails with lower implied odds, while smaller parties remain marginal. Any late shifts in turnout among key voter blocs or campaign events on migration and housing could alter relative standings before ballots close.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Market Opened: Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ET
Volume
$21,488End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling in Berlin, including an INSA survey from July 2026 showing AfD at 19% and ahead for the first time, has kept the contest for third place tightly clustered among AfD, CDU, and the Greens. With the September 20 election weeks away, trader consensus reflects AfD's momentum from national trends and local dissatisfaction, offset by CDU's position in the outgoing coalition government and the Greens' established urban base. The Left party trails with lower implied odds, while smaller parties remain marginal. Any late shifts in turnout among key voter blocs or campaign events on migration and housing could alter relative standings before ballots close.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volume
$21,488End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling in Berlin, including an INSA survey from July 2026 showing AfD at 19% and ahead for the first time, has kept the contest for third place tightly clustered among AfD, CDU, and the Greens. With the September 20 election weeks away, trader consensus reflects AfD's momentum from national trends and local dissatisfaction, offset by CDU's position in the outgoing coalition government and the Greens' established urban base. The Left party trails with lower implied odds, while smaller parties remain marginal. Any late shifts in turnout among key voter blocs or campaign events on migration and housing could alter relative standings before ballots close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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