The Bank of Canada's decision to hold its overnight rate steady at 2.25% across all 2026 meetings to date, including the July 15 announcement, underpins the 74.5% market-implied probability against a hike this year. Weak domestic growth, with GDP expected to slow to 2.75% amid broadening but fragile expansion, combined with inflation easing from 3.2% in May to 2.8% in June as energy price pressures from Middle East tensions prove transitory, supports the central bank's patient stance. Traders are pricing in limited scope for tightening given anchored expectations and the BoC's explicit focus on looking through short-term shocks rather than reacting preemptively. Key near-term catalysts include the September 2 rate decision and updated Monetary Policy Report, where any shift in core CPI trends or global risk sentiment could influence year-end odds.