Incumbent Republican Eli Crane seeks re-election in Arizona’s 2nd congressional district, which carries an R+7 partisan voting index and includes rural areas plus significant portions of the Navajo Nation. Both Crane and Democratic nominee Jonathan Nez advanced unopposed in the July 21 primaries, setting up a November 3 general election matchup. Crane’s 2024 victory margin and the district’s historical Republican tilt underpin the 63.5% Republican consensus, while Nez’s fundraising edge and targeted outreach to Native American voters support the Democratic 37% share. Limited polling and the absence of major late developments leave the race leaning toward the incumbent party, though the sizable Native American electorate and any national midterm shifts could narrow the gap before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAZ-02 House Election Winner
AZ-02 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
64%
Democratic Party
37%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
$783 Vol.
64%
Democratic Party
$274 Vol.
37%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Eli Crane seeks re-election in Arizona’s 2nd congressional district, which carries an R+7 partisan voting index and includes rural areas plus significant portions of the Navajo Nation. Both Crane and Democratic nominee Jonathan Nez advanced unopposed in the July 21 primaries, setting up a November 3 general election matchup. Crane’s 2024 victory margin and the district’s historical Republican tilt underpin the 63.5% Republican consensus, while Nez’s fundraising edge and targeted outreach to Native American voters support the Democratic 37% share. Limited polling and the absence of major late developments leave the race leaning toward the incumbent party, though the sizable Native American electorate and any national midterm shifts could narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ET
Volume
$1,057End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Eli Crane seeks re-election in Arizona’s 2nd congressional district, which carries an R+7 partisan voting index and includes rural areas plus significant portions of the Navajo Nation. Both Crane and Democratic nominee Jonathan Nez advanced unopposed in the July 21 primaries, setting up a November 3 general election matchup. Crane’s 2024 victory margin and the district’s historical Republican tilt underpin the 63.5% Republican consensus, while Nez’s fundraising edge and targeted outreach to Native American voters support the Democratic 37% share. Limited polling and the absence of major late developments leave the race leaning toward the incumbent party, though the sizable Native American electorate and any national midterm shifts could narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$1,057End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Eli Crane seeks re-election in Arizona’s 2nd congressional district, which carries an R+7 partisan voting index and includes rural areas plus significant portions of the Navajo Nation. Both Crane and Democratic nominee Jonathan Nez advanced unopposed in the July 21 primaries, setting up a November 3 general election matchup. Crane’s 2024 victory margin and the district’s historical Republican tilt underpin the 63.5% Republican consensus, while Nez’s fundraising edge and targeted outreach to Native American voters support the Democratic 37% share. Limited polling and the absence of major late developments leave the race leaning toward the incumbent party, though the sizable Native American electorate and any national midterm shifts could narrow the gap before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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