Renewed Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, including a lethal strike on an Egyptian cargo ship on August 11-12, 2026, represent the dominant driver of current trader sentiment. These incidents, occurring amid the group's July blockade declaration targeting Saudi-linked traffic, have pushed daily transits to an average of roughly 32 vessels in recent data from Kpler, down from pre-blockade levels near 50 and well below the historical baseline of 75. Shipping firms continue rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope to mitigate risks, sustaining the >50% volume decline observed since earlier Houthi campaigns. With end-August resolution approaching and no near-term de-escalation signals, market-implied odds favor further contraction into the sub-25 range, as elevated insurance costs, naval tensions, and persistent chokepoint uncertainty weigh on throughput.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?
<25 44.6%
25-29 24%
30-34 20%
35-39 10%
$12,242 Vol.
$12,242 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<25
45%
25-29
24%
30-34
20%
35-39
10%
40+
4%
<25 44.6%
25-29 24%
30-34 20%
35-39 10%
$12,242 Vol.
$12,242 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<25
$2,682 Vol.
45%
25-29
$2,439 Vol.
24%
30-34
$3,473 Vol.
20%
35-39
$1,058 Vol.
10%
40+
$2,589 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Renewed Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, including a lethal strike on an Egyptian cargo ship on August 11-12, 2026, represent the dominant driver of current trader sentiment. These incidents, occurring amid the group's July blockade declaration targeting Saudi-linked traffic, have pushed daily transits to an average of roughly 32 vessels in recent data from Kpler, down from pre-blockade levels near 50 and well below the historical baseline of 75. Shipping firms continue rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope to mitigate risks, sustaining the >50% volume decline observed since earlier Houthi campaigns. With end-August resolution approaching and no near-term de-escalation signals, market-implied odds favor further contraction into the sub-25 range, as elevated insurance costs, naval tensions, and persistent chokepoint uncertainty weigh on throughput.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
Volume
$12,242End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETResolution Source
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Renewed Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, including a lethal strike on an Egyptian cargo ship on August 11-12, 2026, represent the dominant driver of current trader sentiment. These incidents, occurring amid the group's July blockade declaration targeting Saudi-linked traffic, have pushed daily transits to an average of roughly 32 vessels in recent data from Kpler, down from pre-blockade levels near 50 and well below the historical baseline of 75. Shipping firms continue rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope to mitigate risks, sustaining the >50% volume decline observed since earlier Houthi campaigns. With end-August resolution approaching and no near-term de-escalation signals, market-implied odds favor further contraction into the sub-25 range, as elevated insurance costs, naval tensions, and persistent chokepoint uncertainty weigh on throughput.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$12,242End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETResolution Source
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...Renewed Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, including a lethal strike on an Egyptian cargo ship on August 11-12, 2026, represent the dominant driver of current trader sentiment. These incidents, occurring amid the group's July blockade declaration targeting Saudi-linked traffic, have pushed daily transits to an average of roughly 32 vessels in recent data from Kpler, down from pre-blockade levels near 50 and well below the historical baseline of 75. Shipping firms continue rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope to mitigate risks, sustaining the >50% volume decline observed since earlier Houthi campaigns. With end-August resolution approaching and no near-term de-escalation signals, market-implied odds favor further contraction into the sub-25 range, as elevated insurance costs, naval tensions, and persistent chokepoint uncertainty weigh on throughput.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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