The Workers' Party (PT) national convention on August 2, 2026, formally nominated incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its candidate for the October presidential election, with Geraldo Alckmin confirmed again as running mate in the established coalition. This party decision, occurring well ahead of the August 15 registration deadline, anchors the near-certain trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Lula's eligibility for a fourth term under Brazil's constitutional rules for consecutive service further supports the outcome, with no reported internal challenges or procedural obstacles at the convention. While late internal reversals or unforeseen legal disputes remain theoretically possible before the cutoff, the completed convention and subsequent public announcements have locked in the nomination process.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated99% chance
$198,800 Vol.
$198,800 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
99% chance
$198,800 Vol.
$198,800 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
The 2026 Brazil presidential election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. Political parties must file candidate registration applications with the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) for the 2026 Brazil presidential election by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) files a candidate registration application nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for President of Brazil by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A filing by a coalition (coligação) or party federation (federação partidária) that includes the PT and names Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its presidential candidate will also qualify.
This market will resolve based on the filing date (Data de Autuação) of an applicable Application for Registration of Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura, RRC). An Application for Registration of Individual Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura Individual, RRCI) will not qualify for resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official filings from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Workers' Party (PT) national convention on August 2, 2026, formally nominated incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its candidate for the October presidential election, with Geraldo Alckmin confirmed again as running mate in the established coalition. This party decision, occurring well ahead of the August 15 registration deadline, anchors the near-certain trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Lula's eligibility for a fourth term under Brazil's constitutional rules for consecutive service further supports the outcome, with no reported internal challenges or procedural obstacles at the convention. While late internal reversals or unforeseen legal disputes remain theoretically possible before the cutoff, the completed convention and subsequent public announcements have locked in the nomination process.
The 2026 Brazil presidential election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. Political parties must file candidate registration applications with the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) for the 2026 Brazil presidential election by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) files a candidate registration application nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for President of Brazil by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A filing by a coalition (coligação) or party federation (federação partidária) that includes the PT and names Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its presidential candidate will also qualify.
This market will resolve based on the filing date (Data de Autuação) of an applicable Application for Registration of Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura, RRC). An Application for Registration of Individual Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura Individual, RRCI) will not qualify for resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official filings from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) files a candidate registration application nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for President of Brazil by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A filing by a coalition (coligação) or party federation (federação partidária) that includes the PT and names Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its presidential candidate will also qualify.
This market will resolve based on the filing date (Data de Autuação) of an applicable Application for Registration of Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura, RRC). An Application for Registration of Individual Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura Individual, RRCI) will not qualify for resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official filings from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 17, 2026, 6:22 PM ET
Volume
$198,800End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Apr 17, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Brazil presidential election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. Political parties must file candidate registration applications with the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) for the 2026 Brazil presidential election by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) files a candidate registration application nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for President of Brazil by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A filing by a coalition (coligação) or party federation (federação partidária) that includes the PT and names Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its presidential candidate will also qualify.
This market will resolve based on the filing date (Data de Autuação) of an applicable Application for Registration of Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura, RRC). An Application for Registration of Individual Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura Individual, RRCI) will not qualify for resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official filings from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Workers' Party (PT) national convention on August 2, 2026, formally nominated incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its candidate for the October presidential election, with Geraldo Alckmin confirmed again as running mate in the established coalition. This party decision, occurring well ahead of the August 15 registration deadline, anchors the near-certain trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Lula's eligibility for a fourth term under Brazil's constitutional rules for consecutive service further supports the outcome, with no reported internal challenges or procedural obstacles at the convention. While late internal reversals or unforeseen legal disputes remain theoretically possible before the cutoff, the completed convention and subsequent public announcements have locked in the nomination process.
The 2026 Brazil presidential election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. Political parties must file candidate registration applications with the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) for the 2026 Brazil presidential election by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) files a candidate registration application nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for President of Brazil by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A filing by a coalition (coligação) or party federation (federação partidária) that includes the PT and names Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its presidential candidate will also qualify.
This market will resolve based on the filing date (Data de Autuação) of an applicable Application for Registration of Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura, RRC). An Application for Registration of Individual Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura Individual, RRCI) will not qualify for resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official filings from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) files a candidate registration application nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for President of Brazil by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A filing by a coalition (coligação) or party federation (federação partidária) that includes the PT and names Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its presidential candidate will also qualify.
This market will resolve based on the filing date (Data de Autuação) of an applicable Application for Registration of Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura, RRC). An Application for Registration of Individual Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura Individual, RRCI) will not qualify for resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official filings from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$198,800End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Apr 17, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Workers' Party (PT) national convention on August 2, 2026, formally nominated incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its candidate for the October presidential election, with Geraldo Alckmin confirmed again as running mate in the established coalition. This party decision, occurring well ahead of the August 15 registration deadline, anchors the near-certain trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Lula's eligibility for a fourth term under Brazil's constitutional rules for consecutive service further supports the outcome, with no reported internal challenges or procedural obstacles at the convention. While late internal reversals or unforeseen legal disputes remain theoretically possible before the cutoff, the completed convention and subsequent public announcements have locked in the nomination process.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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