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Geopolitics·Peace Deal

UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

icon for UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
Geopolitics·Peace Deal

UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

19% chance
Polymarket

$153,881 Vol.

19% chance
Polymarket

$153,881 Vol.

On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations following the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding produced technical talks but no finalized nuclear agreement by mid-August, amid resumed strikes, Strait of Hormuz incidents, and Iranian threats to shipping. UN Security Council briefings in July highlighted “lost continuity of knowledge” on Iran’s nuclear program after earlier U.S.-Israeli operations, while permanent members remain divided on reviving or replacing elements of Resolution 2231. European powers have signaled possible snapback sanctions, and U.S. statements frame current diplomacy as a narrow window rather than a settled path to a comprehensive deal. These developments, coupled with the tight timeline to year-end and absence of verified progress toward UNSC endorsement, underpin trader consensus that the required resolution is unlikely.

On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$153,881
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations following the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding produced technical talks but no finalized nuclear agreement by mid-August, amid resumed strikes, Strait of Hormuz incidents, and Iranian threats to shipping. UN Security Council briefings in July highlighted “lost continuity of knowledge” on Iran’s nuclear program after earlier U.S.-Israeli operations, while permanent members remain divided on reviving or replacing elements of Resolution 2231. European powers have signaled possible snapback sanctions, and U.S. statements frame current diplomacy as a narrow window rather than a settled path to a comprehensive deal. These developments, coupled with the tight timeline to year-end and absence of verified progress toward UNSC endorsement, underpin trader consensus that the required resolution is unlikely.

On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$153,881
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 19% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 19¢, the market collectively assigns a 19% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?" has generated $153.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?" is 19% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 19% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.