Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, mediated through Oman and other channels, continue to hinge on the core dispute over uranium enrichment, with Iranian officials consistently treating domestic enrichment rights as a non-negotiable position while US proposals have emphasized limits or relocation of activities. Strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged key sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving Iran's enrichment infrastructure degraded and with no verified restart of operations as of mid-August 2026. Recent diplomatic drafts and technical talks have deferred final decisions on stockpile handling, verification, and enrichment levels into a 60-day window without resolving the impasse. These factors sustain trader consensus against a full agreement to cease enrichment by December 31, though further breakthroughs on inspections or sanctions relief could still alter the trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated15% chance
$1,574,986 Vol.
$1,574,986 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
15% chance
$1,574,986 Vol.
$1,574,986 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, mediated through Oman and other channels, continue to hinge on the core dispute over uranium enrichment, with Iranian officials consistently treating domestic enrichment rights as a non-negotiable position while US proposals have emphasized limits or relocation of activities. Strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged key sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving Iran's enrichment infrastructure degraded and with no verified restart of operations as of mid-August 2026. Recent diplomatic drafts and technical talks have deferred final decisions on stockpile handling, verification, and enrichment levels into a 60-day window without resolving the impasse. These factors sustain trader consensus against a full agreement to cease enrichment by December 31, though further breakthroughs on inspections or sanctions relief could still alter the trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Volume
$1,574,986End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, mediated through Oman and other channels, continue to hinge on the core dispute over uranium enrichment, with Iranian officials consistently treating domestic enrichment rights as a non-negotiable position while US proposals have emphasized limits or relocation of activities. Strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged key sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving Iran's enrichment infrastructure degraded and with no verified restart of operations as of mid-August 2026. Recent diplomatic drafts and technical talks have deferred final decisions on stockpile handling, verification, and enrichment levels into a 60-day window without resolving the impasse. These factors sustain trader consensus against a full agreement to cease enrichment by December 31, though further breakthroughs on inspections or sanctions relief could still alter the trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,574,986End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, mediated through Oman and other channels, continue to hinge on the core dispute over uranium enrichment, with Iranian officials consistently treating domestic enrichment rights as a non-negotiable position while US proposals have emphasized limits or relocation of activities. Strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged key sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving Iran's enrichment infrastructure degraded and with no verified restart of operations as of mid-August 2026. Recent diplomatic drafts and technical talks have deferred final decisions on stockpile handling, verification, and enrichment levels into a 60-day window without resolving the impasse. These factors sustain trader consensus against a full agreement to cease enrichment by December 31, though further breakthroughs on inspections or sanctions relief could still alter the trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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