**Ongoing US-Iran negotiations remain stalled in mid-August 2026, with the 60-day window established by the June Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding having yielded little substantive progress on core nuclear issues.** Disagreements over uranium enrichment limits, stockpile reductions, inspection regimes, and sanctions relief have prevented advancement toward a final agreement that would require UN Security Council endorsement via resolution. Recent UNSC briefings on Resolution 2231 highlighted divisions among permanent members and noted “lost continuity of knowledge” on Iran’s program following earlier US-Israeli strikes, while parallel disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and ceasefire compliance have shifted focus away from comprehensive diplomacy. Trader consensus reflected in the 80% “No” probability aligns with these persistent procedural and substantive barriers, including P5+1 splits and the absence of verifiable breakthroughs that could enable timely Council action by December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
20% chance
$153,763 Vol.
$153,763 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
20% chance
$153,763 Vol.
$153,763 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Ongoing US-Iran negotiations remain stalled in mid-August 2026, with the 60-day window established by the June Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding having yielded little substantive progress on core nuclear issues.** Disagreements over uranium enrichment limits, stockpile reductions, inspection regimes, and sanctions relief have prevented advancement toward a final agreement that would require UN Security Council endorsement via resolution. Recent UNSC briefings on Resolution 2231 highlighted divisions among permanent members and noted “lost continuity of knowledge” on Iran’s program following earlier US-Israeli strikes, while parallel disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and ceasefire compliance have shifted focus away from comprehensive diplomacy. Trader consensus reflected in the 80% “No” probability aligns with these persistent procedural and substantive barriers, including P5+1 splits and the absence of verifiable breakthroughs that could enable timely Council action by December 31.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ET
Volume
$153,763End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Ongoing US-Iran negotiations remain stalled in mid-August 2026, with the 60-day window established by the June Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding having yielded little substantive progress on core nuclear issues.** Disagreements over uranium enrichment limits, stockpile reductions, inspection regimes, and sanctions relief have prevented advancement toward a final agreement that would require UN Security Council endorsement via resolution. Recent UNSC briefings on Resolution 2231 highlighted divisions among permanent members and noted “lost continuity of knowledge” on Iran’s program following earlier US-Israeli strikes, while parallel disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and ceasefire compliance have shifted focus away from comprehensive diplomacy. Trader consensus reflected in the 80% “No” probability aligns with these persistent procedural and substantive barriers, including P5+1 splits and the absence of verifiable breakthroughs that could enable timely Council action by December 31.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$153,763End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing US-Iran negotiations remain stalled in mid-August 2026, with the 60-day window established by the June Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding having yielded little substantive progress on core nuclear issues.** Disagreements over uranium enrichment limits, stockpile reductions, inspection regimes, and sanctions relief have prevented advancement toward a final agreement that would require UN Security Council endorsement via resolution. Recent UNSC briefings on Resolution 2231 highlighted divisions among permanent members and noted “lost continuity of knowledge” on Iran’s program following earlier US-Israeli strikes, while parallel disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and ceasefire compliance have shifted focus away from comprehensive diplomacy. Trader consensus reflected in the 80% “No” probability aligns with these persistent procedural and substantive barriers, including P5+1 splits and the absence of verifiable breakthroughs that could enable timely Council action by December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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