Russian forces captured the village of Preobrazhenka in Donetsk Oblast in April 2025 amid incremental advances west of Kurakhove and toward the Dnipropetrovsk border, according to Russian Defense Ministry statements corroborated at the time by Ukrainian mapping sources. In the broader theater, Russian territorial gains slowed markedly through 2026 as Ukrainian counteroffensives reclaimed ground in parts of Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and western Donetsk, while drone interdiction and logistics strain limited sustained momentum. Trader assessments of future entry into comparable small settlements reflect this pattern: high implied probabilities attach to locations already under pressure or historically within Russian reach by year-end deadlines, tempered by the uncertain pace of attritional fighting and any diplomatic pauses. Upcoming factors include seasonal weather effects on maneuver, Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian rear areas, and scheduled political events such as Russian State Duma elections that could influence resource allocation. Resolution typically hinges on verified territorial control via open-source mapping rather than official claims alone.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Russia enter Preobrazhenka by...?
Will Russia enter Preobrazhenka by...?
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
October 31
60%
December 31
84%
$2,043 Vol.
October 31
$1,592 Vol.
60%
December 31
$451 Vol.
84%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Preobrazhenka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.574595° N, 35.812497° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces captured the village of Preobrazhenka in Donetsk Oblast in April 2025 amid incremental advances west of Kurakhove and toward the Dnipropetrovsk border, according to Russian Defense Ministry statements corroborated at the time by Ukrainian mapping sources. In the broader theater, Russian territorial gains slowed markedly through 2026 as Ukrainian counteroffensives reclaimed ground in parts of Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and western Donetsk, while drone interdiction and logistics strain limited sustained momentum. Trader assessments of future entry into comparable small settlements reflect this pattern: high implied probabilities attach to locations already under pressure or historically within Russian reach by year-end deadlines, tempered by the uncertain pace of attritional fighting and any diplomatic pauses. Upcoming factors include seasonal weather effects on maneuver, Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian rear areas, and scheduled political events such as Russian State Duma elections that could influence resource allocation. Resolution typically hinges on verified territorial control via open-source mapping rather than official claims alone.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Preobrazhenka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.574595° N, 35.812497° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 10:40 PM ET
Volume
$2,043End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 10:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Preobrazhenka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.574595° N, 35.812497° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces captured the village of Preobrazhenka in Donetsk Oblast in April 2025 amid incremental advances west of Kurakhove and toward the Dnipropetrovsk border, according to Russian Defense Ministry statements corroborated at the time by Ukrainian mapping sources. In the broader theater, Russian territorial gains slowed markedly through 2026 as Ukrainian counteroffensives reclaimed ground in parts of Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and western Donetsk, while drone interdiction and logistics strain limited sustained momentum. Trader assessments of future entry into comparable small settlements reflect this pattern: high implied probabilities attach to locations already under pressure or historically within Russian reach by year-end deadlines, tempered by the uncertain pace of attritional fighting and any diplomatic pauses. Upcoming factors include seasonal weather effects on maneuver, Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian rear areas, and scheduled political events such as Russian State Duma elections that could influence resource allocation. Resolution typically hinges on verified territorial control via open-source mapping rather than official claims alone.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Preobrazhenka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.574595° N, 35.812497° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$2,043End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 10:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces captured the village of Preobrazhenka in Donetsk Oblast in April 2025 amid incremental advances west of Kurakhove and toward the Dnipropetrovsk border, according to Russian Defense Ministry statements corroborated at the time by Ukrainian mapping sources. In the broader theater, Russian territorial gains slowed markedly through 2026 as Ukrainian counteroffensives reclaimed ground in parts of Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and western Donetsk, while drone interdiction and logistics strain limited sustained momentum. Trader assessments of future entry into comparable small settlements reflect this pattern: high implied probabilities attach to locations already under pressure or historically within Russian reach by year-end deadlines, tempered by the uncertain pace of attritional fighting and any diplomatic pauses. Upcoming factors include seasonal weather effects on maneuver, Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian rear areas, and scheduled political events such as Russian State Duma elections that could influence resource allocation. Resolution typically hinges on verified territorial control via open-source mapping rather than official claims alone.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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