Iran's Islamic Penal Code, grounded in Shia jurisprudence, explicitly criminalizes same-sex relations with penalties including flogging and execution, while defining marriage exclusively as a union between a man and a woman. No legislative proposals, judicial rulings, or official statements from Iranian authorities in recent years have indicated movement toward recognition of same-sex unions or related civil rights. The theocratic structure, with the Supreme Leader and Guardian Council overseeing compliance with religious principles, reinforces continuity on this issue. Trader consensus at 97.9% for "No" reflects these entrenched legal and institutional barriers. Shifts could theoretically arise only from rare events such as a fundamental constitutional revision or unprecedented reinterpretation by senior clerics, though none appear on the horizon within typical market timeframes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2% chance
$74,014 Vol.
$74,014 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
2% chance
$74,014 Vol.
$74,014 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's Islamic Penal Code, grounded in Shia jurisprudence, explicitly criminalizes same-sex relations with penalties including flogging and execution, while defining marriage exclusively as a union between a man and a woman. No legislative proposals, judicial rulings, or official statements from Iranian authorities in recent years have indicated movement toward recognition of same-sex unions or related civil rights. The theocratic structure, with the Supreme Leader and Guardian Council overseeing compliance with religious principles, reinforces continuity on this issue. Trader consensus at 97.9% for "No" reflects these entrenched legal and institutional barriers. Shifts could theoretically arise only from rare events such as a fundamental constitutional revision or unprecedented reinterpretation by senior clerics, though none appear on the horizon within typical market timeframes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 17, 2026, 8:48 PM ET
Volume
$74,014End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 8:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's Islamic Penal Code, grounded in Shia jurisprudence, explicitly criminalizes same-sex relations with penalties including flogging and execution, while defining marriage exclusively as a union between a man and a woman. No legislative proposals, judicial rulings, or official statements from Iranian authorities in recent years have indicated movement toward recognition of same-sex unions or related civil rights. The theocratic structure, with the Supreme Leader and Guardian Council overseeing compliance with religious principles, reinforces continuity on this issue. Trader consensus at 97.9% for "No" reflects these entrenched legal and institutional barriers. Shifts could theoretically arise only from rare events such as a fundamental constitutional revision or unprecedented reinterpretation by senior clerics, though none appear on the horizon within typical market timeframes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$74,014End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 8:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's Islamic Penal Code, grounded in Shia jurisprudence, explicitly criminalizes same-sex relations with penalties including flogging and execution, while defining marriage exclusively as a union between a man and a woman. No legislative proposals, judicial rulings, or official statements from Iranian authorities in recent years have indicated movement toward recognition of same-sex unions or related civil rights. The theocratic structure, with the Supreme Leader and Guardian Council overseeing compliance with religious principles, reinforces continuity on this issue. Trader consensus at 97.9% for "No" reflects these entrenched legal and institutional barriers. Shifts could theoretically arise only from rare events such as a fundamental constitutional revision or unprecedented reinterpretation by senior clerics, though none appear on the horizon within typical market timeframes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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