Anthropic's Claude series, including recent Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants, drives the 66.5% market-implied probability through sustained leadership on 2026 leaderboards such as Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, LMSYS Arena Elo, and coding benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified. Traders cite superior agentic reasoning, 1M-token context handling, and reliability that propelled enterprise adoption past OpenAI by April 2026. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 family trails at 11% amid competitive but narrower gains in general tasks, while xAI and Google cluster lower due to less consistent frontier results. With several months remaining, ongoing releases and benchmark saturation could shift positioning, though Anthropic's momentum currently anchors trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 67%
OpenAI 11%
xAI 9.0%
Google 9%
$633,300 Vol.
$633,300 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Anthropic
67%
OpenAI
11%
xAI
9%
9%
Alibaba
2%
Moonshot
2%
Meta
2%
DeepSeek
1%
Z.ai
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 67%
OpenAI 11%
xAI 9.0%
Google 9%
$633,300 Vol.
$633,300 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Anthropic
$69,270 Vol.
67%
OpenAI
$51,662 Vol.
11%
xAI
$44,502 Vol.
9%
$34,531 Vol.
9%
Alibaba
$41,039 Vol.
2%
Moonshot
$48,746 Vol.
2%
Meta
$40,866 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$46,718 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$38,987 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$52,273 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$32,631 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$33,026 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$28,912 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$35,398 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$34,741 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude series, including recent Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants, drives the 66.5% market-implied probability through sustained leadership on 2026 leaderboards such as Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, LMSYS Arena Elo, and coding benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified. Traders cite superior agentic reasoning, 1M-token context handling, and reliability that propelled enterprise adoption past OpenAI by April 2026. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 family trails at 11% amid competitive but narrower gains in general tasks, while xAI and Google cluster lower due to less consistent frontier results. With several months remaining, ongoing releases and benchmark saturation could shift positioning, though Anthropic's momentum currently anchors trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ET
Volume
$633,300End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude series, including recent Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants, drives the 66.5% market-implied probability through sustained leadership on 2026 leaderboards such as Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, LMSYS Arena Elo, and coding benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified. Traders cite superior agentic reasoning, 1M-token context handling, and reliability that propelled enterprise adoption past OpenAI by April 2026. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 family trails at 11% amid competitive but narrower gains in general tasks, while xAI and Google cluster lower due to less consistent frontier results. With several months remaining, ongoing releases and benchmark saturation could shift positioning, though Anthropic's momentum currently anchors trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$633,300End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude series, including recent Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants, drives the 66.5% market-implied probability through sustained leadership on 2026 leaderboards such as Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, LMSYS Arena Elo, and coding benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified. Traders cite superior agentic reasoning, 1M-token context handling, and reliability that propelled enterprise adoption past OpenAI by April 2026. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 family trails at 11% amid competitive but narrower gains in general tasks, while xAI and Google cluster lower due to less consistent frontier results. With several months remaining, ongoing releases and benchmark saturation could shift positioning, though Anthropic's momentum currently anchors trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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