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Politics·Primaries

WA-05 Primary Winners

icon for WA-05 Primary Winners
Politics·Primaries

WA-05 Primary Winners

$11,931 Vol.

Aug 4, 2026
Polymarket

$11,931 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for Kyle Ursey

Kyle Ursey

$957 Vol.

No

icon for David Womack

David Womack

$417 Vol.

No

icon for Michael Baumgartner

Michael Baumgartner

$1,393 Vol.

Yes

icon for Ann Marie Danimus

Ann Marie Danimus

$561 Vol.

No

icon for Andrew Bartleson

Andrew Bartleson

$826 Vol.

No

icon for Carmela Conroy

Carmela Conroy

$2,914 Vol.

Yes

icon for Kevin Fagan

Kevin Fagan

$430 Vol.

No

icon for Matthew Hayes

Matthew Hayes

$1,296 Vol.

No

icon for Bajun Mavalwalla

Bajun Mavalwalla

$358 Vol.

No

icon for Nate Powell

Nate Powell

$2,779 Vol.

No

The non-partisan primary election for the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives is scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. The two candidates who receive the most votes in this primary election will qualify for the General Election. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 WA-05 congressional district primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for the WA-05 congressional district seat, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Washington, specifically the Washington Office of the Secretary of State.Washington's 5th congressional district held its top-two primary on August 4, 2026, with the filing deadline having passed in May. Incumbent Michael Baumgartner captured roughly 47 percent of the vote and advanced, joined by Democrat Carmela Conroy at approximately 21 percent. Independent Nate Powell finished third near 15 percent, while remaining Democratic and other candidates trailed further behind. These results set the general election matchup for November 3. Trader positioning in the primary-winner market reflects the consolidated support for the top two finishers under Washington's nonpartisan primary rules, alongside any remaining uncertainty around final certified tallies or write-in impacts.

The non-partisan primary election for the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives is scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. The two candidates who receive the most votes in this primary election will qualify for the General Election.

This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If no 2026 WA-05 congressional district primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for the WA-05 congressional district seat, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Washington, specifically the Washington Office of the Secretary of State.
Volume
$11,931
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 5:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The non-partisan primary election for the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives is scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. The two candidates who receive the most votes in this primary election will qualify for the General Election. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 WA-05 congressional district primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for the WA-05 congressional district seat, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Washington, specifically the Washington Office of the Secretary of State.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

The non-partisan primary election for the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives is scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. The two candidates who receive the most votes in this primary election will qualify for the General Election. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 WA-05 congressional district primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for the WA-05 congressional district seat, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Washington, specifically the Washington Office of the Secretary of State.Washington's 5th congressional district held its top-two primary on August 4, 2026, with the filing deadline having passed in May. Incumbent Michael Baumgartner captured roughly 47 percent of the vote and advanced, joined by Democrat Carmela Conroy at approximately 21 percent. Independent Nate Powell finished third near 15 percent, while remaining Democratic and other candidates trailed further behind. These results set the general election matchup for November 3. Trader positioning in the primary-winner market reflects the consolidated support for the top two finishers under Washington's nonpartisan primary rules, alongside any remaining uncertainty around final certified tallies or write-in impacts.

The non-partisan primary election for the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives is scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. The two candidates who receive the most votes in this primary election will qualify for the General Election.

This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If no 2026 WA-05 congressional district primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for the WA-05 congressional district seat, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Washington, specifically the Washington Office of the Secretary of State.
Volume
$11,931
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 5:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The non-partisan primary election for the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives is scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. The two candidates who receive the most votes in this primary election will qualify for the General Election. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 WA-05 congressional district primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for the WA-05 congressional district seat, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Washington, specifically the Washington Office of the Secretary of State.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Related

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Will John Braun earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?

98%
icon for Will the Republican Party win the WA-05 House seat?

Will the Republican Party win the WA-05 House seat?

75%
icon for Will the Democratic Party win the WA-06 House seat?

Will the Democratic Party win the WA-06 House seat?

95%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"WA-05 Primary Winners" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Michael Baumgartner" at 100%, followed by "Carmela Conroy" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "WA-05 Primary Winners" has generated $11.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "WA-05 Primary Winners," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "WA-05 Primary Winners" is "Michael Baumgartner" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Carmela Conroy" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "WA-05 Primary Winners" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.