Democratic incumbent Eugene Vindman holds an 88.5% implied probability in the VA-07 House race, while the Republican nominee trails at 10.5%. Vindman, who won the seat in 2024, benefits from substantial fundraising with over $5 million in cash on hand and the district's established Democratic lean, evidenced by prior statewide results favoring Democrats by double-digit margins in suburban and exurban Northern and Central Virginia areas. Douglas Ollivant secured the Republican nomination in the August 4 primary, but no subsequent developments have shifted the competitive balance. The November 3 general election timeline leaves limited room for late catalysts to alter the current trader consensus reflected in the market prices.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVA-07 House Election Winner
VA-07 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
89%
Republican Party
11%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$288 Vol.
89%
Republican Party
$1,730 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Eugene Vindman holds an 88.5% implied probability in the VA-07 House race, while the Republican nominee trails at 10.5%. Vindman, who won the seat in 2024, benefits from substantial fundraising with over $5 million in cash on hand and the district's established Democratic lean, evidenced by prior statewide results favoring Democrats by double-digit margins in suburban and exurban Northern and Central Virginia areas. Douglas Ollivant secured the Republican nomination in the August 4 primary, but no subsequent developments have shifted the competitive balance. The November 3 general election timeline leaves limited room for late catalysts to alter the current trader consensus reflected in the market prices.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
Volume
$2,017End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Eugene Vindman holds an 88.5% implied probability in the VA-07 House race, while the Republican nominee trails at 10.5%. Vindman, who won the seat in 2024, benefits from substantial fundraising with over $5 million in cash on hand and the district's established Democratic lean, evidenced by prior statewide results favoring Democrats by double-digit margins in suburban and exurban Northern and Central Virginia areas. Douglas Ollivant secured the Republican nomination in the August 4 primary, but no subsequent developments have shifted the competitive balance. The November 3 general election timeline leaves limited room for late catalysts to alter the current trader consensus reflected in the market prices.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$2,017End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Eugene Vindman holds an 88.5% implied probability in the VA-07 House race, while the Republican nominee trails at 10.5%. Vindman, who won the seat in 2024, benefits from substantial fundraising with over $5 million in cash on hand and the district's established Democratic lean, evidenced by prior statewide results favoring Democrats by double-digit margins in suburban and exurban Northern and Central Virginia areas. Douglas Ollivant secured the Republican nomination in the August 4 primary, but no subsequent developments have shifted the competitive balance. The November 3 general election timeline leaves limited room for late catalysts to alter the current trader consensus reflected in the market prices.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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