Recent economic data underscore the closely contested nature of Q3 2026 GDP outcomes, with Q2 growth printing at a modest 1.5% annualized rate amid a shift toward investment-led expansion. Business capital spending on productivity-enhancing technologies, including AI infrastructure, provides a key tailwind that offsets softening consumer spending tied to constrained affordability and slower real income gains. Sticky inflation, with CPI near 3.4% in July, keeps the Federal Reserve on hold at the 3.5–3.75% funds rate, limiting monetary support while labor market conditions remain stable near 4.1–4.4% unemployment. Trader consensus reflected in current odds balances these resilient fundamentals against downside risks from elevated uncertainty, positioning the 2.0–3.0% range as the most probable band ahead of further monthly releases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated≥3.0% 39%
2.0–2.5% 27%
2.5–3.0% 20%
1.5–2.0% 10%
$14,864 Vol.
$14,864 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
3%
0.5–1.0%
6%
1.0–1.5%
5%
1.5–2.0%
10%
2.0–2.5%
27%
2.5–3.0%
20%
≥3.0%
39%
≥3.0% 39%
2.0–2.5% 27%
2.5–3.0% 20%
1.5–2.0% 10%
$14,864 Vol.
$14,864 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
$760 Vol.
3%
0.5–1.0%
$460 Vol.
6%
1.0–1.5%
$546 Vol.
5%
1.5–2.0%
$599 Vol.
10%
2.0–2.5%
$1,743 Vol.
27%
2.5–3.0%
$3,145 Vol.
20%
≥3.0%
$7,610 Vol.
39%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent economic data underscore the closely contested nature of Q3 2026 GDP outcomes, with Q2 growth printing at a modest 1.5% annualized rate amid a shift toward investment-led expansion. Business capital spending on productivity-enhancing technologies, including AI infrastructure, provides a key tailwind that offsets softening consumer spending tied to constrained affordability and slower real income gains. Sticky inflation, with CPI near 3.4% in July, keeps the Federal Reserve on hold at the 3.5–3.75% funds rate, limiting monetary support while labor market conditions remain stable near 4.1–4.4% unemployment. Trader consensus reflected in current odds balances these resilient fundamentals against downside risks from elevated uncertainty, positioning the 2.0–3.0% range as the most probable band ahead of further monthly releases.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Volume
$14,864End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent economic data underscore the closely contested nature of Q3 2026 GDP outcomes, with Q2 growth printing at a modest 1.5% annualized rate amid a shift toward investment-led expansion. Business capital spending on productivity-enhancing technologies, including AI infrastructure, provides a key tailwind that offsets softening consumer spending tied to constrained affordability and slower real income gains. Sticky inflation, with CPI near 3.4% in July, keeps the Federal Reserve on hold at the 3.5–3.75% funds rate, limiting monetary support while labor market conditions remain stable near 4.1–4.4% unemployment. Trader consensus reflected in current odds balances these resilient fundamentals against downside risks from elevated uncertainty, positioning the 2.0–3.0% range as the most probable band ahead of further monthly releases.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volume
$14,864End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent economic data underscore the closely contested nature of Q3 2026 GDP outcomes, with Q2 growth printing at a modest 1.5% annualized rate amid a shift toward investment-led expansion. Business capital spending on productivity-enhancing technologies, including AI infrastructure, provides a key tailwind that offsets softening consumer spending tied to constrained affordability and slower real income gains. Sticky inflation, with CPI near 3.4% in July, keeps the Federal Reserve on hold at the 3.5–3.75% funds rate, limiting monetary support while labor market conditions remain stable near 4.1–4.4% unemployment. Trader consensus reflected in current odds balances these resilient fundamentals against downside risks from elevated uncertainty, positioning the 2.0–3.0% range as the most probable band ahead of further monthly releases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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