Recent Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracking estimates for Q3 2026 have held near 5.8%, providing the main lift to the 33.5% market-implied odds on growth at or above 3.0% despite Q2's soft 1.5% advance print. Cooling labor-market momentum, with unemployment near 4.4% and subdued payroll gains, alongside moderating but tariff-influenced inflation readings around 3.4% year-over-year, keeps the distribution competitive across the 2.0–3.0% bands. Traders weigh these high-frequency indicators against broader 2026 consensus forecasts near 2%, positioning the market to react to upcoming retail sales, employment, and inflation releases that could shift the implied rate path before the BEA's final Q3 figure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated≥3.0% 34%
2.0–2.5% 24%
2.5–3.0% 19%
1.5–2.0% 11%
$13,700 Vol.
$13,700 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
4%
0.5–1.0%
10%
1.0–1.5%
4%
1.5–2.0%
11%
2.0–2.5%
27%
2.5–3.0%
19%
≥3.0%
34%
≥3.0% 34%
2.0–2.5% 24%
2.5–3.0% 19%
1.5–2.0% 11%
$13,700 Vol.
$13,700 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
$760 Vol.
4%
0.5–1.0%
$460 Vol.
10%
1.0–1.5%
$546 Vol.
4%
1.5–2.0%
$599 Vol.
11%
2.0–2.5%
$1,743 Vol.
27%
2.5–3.0%
$3,145 Vol.
19%
≥3.0%
$6,446 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracking estimates for Q3 2026 have held near 5.8%, providing the main lift to the 33.5% market-implied odds on growth at or above 3.0% despite Q2's soft 1.5% advance print. Cooling labor-market momentum, with unemployment near 4.4% and subdued payroll gains, alongside moderating but tariff-influenced inflation readings around 3.4% year-over-year, keeps the distribution competitive across the 2.0–3.0% bands. Traders weigh these high-frequency indicators against broader 2026 consensus forecasts near 2%, positioning the market to react to upcoming retail sales, employment, and inflation releases that could shift the implied rate path before the BEA's final Q3 figure.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Volume
$13,700End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracking estimates for Q3 2026 have held near 5.8%, providing the main lift to the 33.5% market-implied odds on growth at or above 3.0% despite Q2's soft 1.5% advance print. Cooling labor-market momentum, with unemployment near 4.4% and subdued payroll gains, alongside moderating but tariff-influenced inflation readings around 3.4% year-over-year, keeps the distribution competitive across the 2.0–3.0% bands. Traders weigh these high-frequency indicators against broader 2026 consensus forecasts near 2%, positioning the market to react to upcoming retail sales, employment, and inflation releases that could shift the implied rate path before the BEA's final Q3 figure.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volume
$13,700End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracking estimates for Q3 2026 have held near 5.8%, providing the main lift to the 33.5% market-implied odds on growth at or above 3.0% despite Q2's soft 1.5% advance print. Cooling labor-market momentum, with unemployment near 4.4% and subdued payroll gains, alongside moderating but tariff-influenced inflation readings around 3.4% year-over-year, keeps the distribution competitive across the 2.0–3.0% bands. Traders weigh these high-frequency indicators against broader 2026 consensus forecasts near 2%, positioning the market to react to upcoming retail sales, employment, and inflation releases that could shift the implied rate path before the BEA's final Q3 figure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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