President Trump's July 2026 proposal for a 20% cargo-value reimbursement fee for U.S. naval protection of the Strait of Hormuz was quickly reversed in favor of trade and investment arrangements with Gulf states, reinforcing longstanding U.S. policy that the waterway remains an international strait open without tolls. The International Maritime Organization and U.S. officials have cited the absence of legal basis for mandatory charges under maritime law, while rejecting Omani and Iranian proposals for voluntary or service-based fees. Diplomatic talks on Hormuz management continue amid stalled U.S.-Iran shipping discussions, with trader consensus pricing the probability of U.S. fee collection by year-end near 11% or lower due to these commitments and institutional opposition. Key upcoming catalysts include any finalization of Gulf-backed frameworks or shifts in enforcement posture.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS charges Hormuz fees by...?
US charges Hormuz fees by...?
$960,416 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
December 31
7%
$960,416 Vol.
August 31
$175,480 Vol.
1%
December 31
$97,784 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's July 2026 proposal for a 20% cargo-value reimbursement fee for U.S. naval protection of the Strait of Hormuz was quickly reversed in favor of trade and investment arrangements with Gulf states, reinforcing longstanding U.S. policy that the waterway remains an international strait open without tolls. The International Maritime Organization and U.S. officials have cited the absence of legal basis for mandatory charges under maritime law, while rejecting Omani and Iranian proposals for voluntary or service-based fees. Diplomatic talks on Hormuz management continue amid stalled U.S.-Iran shipping discussions, with trader consensus pricing the probability of U.S. fee collection by year-end near 11% or lower due to these commitments and institutional opposition. Key upcoming catalysts include any finalization of Gulf-backed frameworks or shifts in enforcement posture.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ET
Volume
$960,416End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's July 2026 proposal for a 20% cargo-value reimbursement fee for U.S. naval protection of the Strait of Hormuz was quickly reversed in favor of trade and investment arrangements with Gulf states, reinforcing longstanding U.S. policy that the waterway remains an international strait open without tolls. The International Maritime Organization and U.S. officials have cited the absence of legal basis for mandatory charges under maritime law, while rejecting Omani and Iranian proposals for voluntary or service-based fees. Diplomatic talks on Hormuz management continue amid stalled U.S.-Iran shipping discussions, with trader consensus pricing the probability of U.S. fee collection by year-end near 11% or lower due to these commitments and institutional opposition. Key upcoming catalysts include any finalization of Gulf-backed frameworks or shifts in enforcement posture.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$960,416End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's July 2026 proposal for a 20% cargo-value reimbursement fee for U.S. naval protection of the Strait of Hormuz was quickly reversed in favor of trade and investment arrangements with Gulf states, reinforcing longstanding U.S. policy that the waterway remains an international strait open without tolls. The International Maritime Organization and U.S. officials have cited the absence of legal basis for mandatory charges under maritime law, while rejecting Omani and Iranian proposals for voluntary or service-based fees. Diplomatic talks on Hormuz management continue amid stalled U.S.-Iran shipping discussions, with trader consensus pricing the probability of U.S. fee collection by year-end near 11% or lower due to these commitments and institutional opposition. Key upcoming catalysts include any finalization of Gulf-backed frameworks or shifts in enforcement posture.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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