Persistent gaps on territorial concessions, security guarantees, and Ukraine's sovereignty have kept substantive negotiations stalled despite intermittent U.S.-brokered trilateral contacts. Russia has repeatedly rejected unconditional ceasefires and insisted on control over Donbas and other areas, while Ukraine has advanced proposals for security arrangements tied to European integration without ceding independence. Brief holiday pauses and prisoner swaps in early 2026 produced no momentum, and recent Kremlin statements in July indicated no immediate resumption of talks, even as Ukraine conveyed updated ideas to U.S. mediators in August. Ongoing military operations, including drone strikes and frontline advances, reinforce trader consensus that a formal peace agreement remains unlikely before the 2027 deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated17% chance
$2,549,251 Vol.
$2,549,251 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
17% chance
$2,549,251 Vol.
$2,549,251 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Persistent gaps on territorial concessions, security guarantees, and Ukraine's sovereignty have kept substantive negotiations stalled despite intermittent U.S.-brokered trilateral contacts. Russia has repeatedly rejected unconditional ceasefires and insisted on control over Donbas and other areas, while Ukraine has advanced proposals for security arrangements tied to European integration without ceding independence. Brief holiday pauses and prisoner swaps in early 2026 produced no momentum, and recent Kremlin statements in July indicated no immediate resumption of talks, even as Ukraine conveyed updated ideas to U.S. mediators in August. Ongoing military operations, including drone strikes and frontline advances, reinforce trader consensus that a formal peace agreement remains unlikely before the 2027 deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$2,549,251End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Persistent gaps on territorial concessions, security guarantees, and Ukraine's sovereignty have kept substantive negotiations stalled despite intermittent U.S.-brokered trilateral contacts. Russia has repeatedly rejected unconditional ceasefires and insisted on control over Donbas and other areas, while Ukraine has advanced proposals for security arrangements tied to European integration without ceding independence. Brief holiday pauses and prisoner swaps in early 2026 produced no momentum, and recent Kremlin statements in July indicated no immediate resumption of talks, even as Ukraine conveyed updated ideas to U.S. mediators in August. Ongoing military operations, including drone strikes and frontline advances, reinforce trader consensus that a formal peace agreement remains unlikely before the 2027 deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,549,251End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent gaps on territorial concessions, security guarantees, and Ukraine's sovereignty have kept substantive negotiations stalled despite intermittent U.S.-brokered trilateral contacts. Russia has repeatedly rejected unconditional ceasefires and insisted on control over Donbas and other areas, while Ukraine has advanced proposals for security arrangements tied to European integration without ceding independence. Brief holiday pauses and prisoner swaps in early 2026 produced no momentum, and recent Kremlin statements in July indicated no immediate resumption of talks, even as Ukraine conveyed updated ideas to U.S. mediators in August. Ongoing military operations, including drone strikes and frontline advances, reinforce trader consensus that a formal peace agreement remains unlikely before the 2027 deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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