Persistent territorial disputes, security guarantee disagreements, and Russia's insistence on retaining occupied regions have kept comprehensive negotiations stalled despite U.S.-facilitated talks in Geneva and elsewhere through mid-2026. Temporary pauses, such as the three-day May ceasefire and associated prisoner exchanges, produced no lasting framework, while Ukrainian proposals for unconditional halts and Russian demands for veto power over Kyiv's alliances remain unreconciled. With only months left before 2027 and no breakthrough signals from either side, trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of a signed peace deal materializing in the narrow window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated18% chance
$2,549,254 Vol.
$2,549,254 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
18% chance
$2,549,254 Vol.
$2,549,254 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Persistent territorial disputes, security guarantee disagreements, and Russia's insistence on retaining occupied regions have kept comprehensive negotiations stalled despite U.S.-facilitated talks in Geneva and elsewhere through mid-2026. Temporary pauses, such as the three-day May ceasefire and associated prisoner exchanges, produced no lasting framework, while Ukrainian proposals for unconditional halts and Russian demands for veto power over Kyiv's alliances remain unreconciled. With only months left before 2027 and no breakthrough signals from either side, trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of a signed peace deal materializing in the narrow window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$2,549,254End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Persistent territorial disputes, security guarantee disagreements, and Russia's insistence on retaining occupied regions have kept comprehensive negotiations stalled despite U.S.-facilitated talks in Geneva and elsewhere through mid-2026. Temporary pauses, such as the three-day May ceasefire and associated prisoner exchanges, produced no lasting framework, while Ukrainian proposals for unconditional halts and Russian demands for veto power over Kyiv's alliances remain unreconciled. With only months left before 2027 and no breakthrough signals from either side, trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of a signed peace deal materializing in the narrow window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,549,254End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent territorial disputes, security guarantee disagreements, and Russia's insistence on retaining occupied regions have kept comprehensive negotiations stalled despite U.S.-facilitated talks in Geneva and elsewhere through mid-2026. Temporary pauses, such as the three-day May ceasefire and associated prisoner exchanges, produced no lasting framework, while Ukrainian proposals for unconditional halts and Russian demands for veto power over Kyiv's alliances remain unreconciled. With only months left before 2027 and no breakthrough signals from either side, trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of a signed peace deal materializing in the narrow window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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