Traders assign a 94% probability against a Trump-Putin-Zelenskyy trilateral meeting before 2027 because sustained diplomatic efforts have produced only lower-level talks and bilateral contacts. U.S.-mediated negotiations involving envoys occurred in Geneva and Abu Dhabi earlier in 2026 without breakthrough, while Trump and Zelenskyy held direct meetings in July amid stalled peace efforts. Putin has consistently avoided a direct encounter with Zelenskyy, favoring bilateral formats or territorial demands that Ukraine rejects. Recent escalations in strikes and lack of progress on core issues such as security guarantees and territorial concessions have kept leader-level trilateral diplomacy off the immediate agenda, leaving insufficient time for such a summit to materialize before the deadline.