Iranian authorities have repeatedly imposed nationwide internet blackouts during periods of domestic unrest and external conflict, most recently a record 88-day near-total shutdown from January 8 to late May 2026 amid 2025–2026 protests and U.S.-Israeli strikes. The measure, coordinated through the Supreme National Security Council and Ministry of Information and Communications Technology, cut international traffic by over 97 percent at peak to limit information flow and coordination. Partial restoration began in May following a presidential directive, yet access remains filtered, whitelisted in many regions, and subject to ongoing price hikes and Starlink enforcement actions. Traders weigh the regime’s established technical kill-switch capabilities, developed with external partners, against economic costs exceeding billions of rials daily and the potential for renewed escalation tied to protests, sanctions, or military developments before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$226,596 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
7%
September 30
14%
December 31
37%
$226,596 Vol.
August 31
$169,477 Vol.
7%
September 30
$3,878 Vol.
14%
December 31
$7 Vol.
37%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a total internet blackout occurs in Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, a “total internet blackout” occurring means that, according to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred have fallen to 1.0% or less of the last 4 weeks’ Max for at least six consecutive hourly data points, as shown in the Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) chart for the last 4 weeks (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d).
The relevant figures for each hourly data point are listed in this chart as “__% of Max”. The Max for each data point will be the Max figure used in the chart by Cloudflare.
Only the first of the relevant consecutive hourly data points must fall before this market’s resolution time. If required, to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until both relevant data points are observed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, specifically the Iran Traffic trends chart for the last 4 weeks found at https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Iranian authorities have repeatedly imposed nationwide internet blackouts during periods of domestic unrest and external conflict, most recently a record 88-day near-total shutdown from January 8 to late May 2026 amid 2025–2026 protests and U.S.-Israeli strikes. The measure, coordinated through the Supreme National Security Council and Ministry of Information and Communications Technology, cut international traffic by over 97 percent at peak to limit information flow and coordination. Partial restoration began in May following a presidential directive, yet access remains filtered, whitelisted in many regions, and subject to ongoing price hikes and Starlink enforcement actions. Traders weigh the regime’s established technical kill-switch capabilities, developed with external partners, against economic costs exceeding billions of rials daily and the potential for renewed escalation tied to protests, sanctions, or military developments before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a total internet blackout occurs in Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, a “total internet blackout” occurring means that, according to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred have fallen to 1.0% or less of the last 4 weeks’ Max for at least six consecutive hourly data points, as shown in the Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) chart for the last 4 weeks (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d).
The relevant figures for each hourly data point are listed in this chart as “__% of Max”. The Max for each data point will be the Max figure used in the chart by Cloudflare.
Only the first of the relevant consecutive hourly data points must fall before this market’s resolution time. If required, to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until both relevant data points are observed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, specifically the Iran Traffic trends chart for the last 4 weeks found at https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, a “total internet blackout” occurring means that, according to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred have fallen to 1.0% or less of the last 4 weeks’ Max for at least six consecutive hourly data points, as shown in the Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) chart for the last 4 weeks (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d).
The relevant figures for each hourly data point are listed in this chart as “__% of Max”. The Max for each data point will be the Max figure used in the chart by Cloudflare.
Only the first of the relevant consecutive hourly data points must fall before this market’s resolution time. If required, to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until both relevant data points are observed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, specifically the Iran Traffic trends chart for the last 4 weeks found at https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 4:52 PM ET
Volume
$226,596End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a total internet blackout occurs in Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, a “total internet blackout” occurring means that, according to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred have fallen to 1.0% or less of the last 4 weeks’ Max for at least six consecutive hourly data points, as shown in the Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) chart for the last 4 weeks (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d).
The relevant figures for each hourly data point are listed in this chart as “__% of Max”. The Max for each data point will be the Max figure used in the chart by Cloudflare.
Only the first of the relevant consecutive hourly data points must fall before this market’s resolution time. If required, to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until both relevant data points are observed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, specifically the Iran Traffic trends chart for the last 4 weeks found at https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Iranian authorities have repeatedly imposed nationwide internet blackouts during periods of domestic unrest and external conflict, most recently a record 88-day near-total shutdown from January 8 to late May 2026 amid 2025–2026 protests and U.S.-Israeli strikes. The measure, coordinated through the Supreme National Security Council and Ministry of Information and Communications Technology, cut international traffic by over 97 percent at peak to limit information flow and coordination. Partial restoration began in May following a presidential directive, yet access remains filtered, whitelisted in many regions, and subject to ongoing price hikes and Starlink enforcement actions. Traders weigh the regime’s established technical kill-switch capabilities, developed with external partners, against economic costs exceeding billions of rials daily and the potential for renewed escalation tied to protests, sanctions, or military developments before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a total internet blackout occurs in Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, a “total internet blackout” occurring means that, according to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred have fallen to 1.0% or less of the last 4 weeks’ Max for at least six consecutive hourly data points, as shown in the Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) chart for the last 4 weeks (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d).
The relevant figures for each hourly data point are listed in this chart as “__% of Max”. The Max for each data point will be the Max figure used in the chart by Cloudflare.
Only the first of the relevant consecutive hourly data points must fall before this market’s resolution time. If required, to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until both relevant data points are observed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, specifically the Iran Traffic trends chart for the last 4 weeks found at https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, a “total internet blackout” occurring means that, according to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred have fallen to 1.0% or less of the last 4 weeks’ Max for at least six consecutive hourly data points, as shown in the Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) chart for the last 4 weeks (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d).
The relevant figures for each hourly data point are listed in this chart as “__% of Max”. The Max for each data point will be the Max figure used in the chart by Cloudflare.
Only the first of the relevant consecutive hourly data points must fall before this market’s resolution time. If required, to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until both relevant data points are observed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, specifically the Iran Traffic trends chart for the last 4 weeks found at https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$226,596End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iranian authorities have repeatedly imposed nationwide internet blackouts during periods of domestic unrest and external conflict, most recently a record 88-day near-total shutdown from January 8 to late May 2026 amid 2025–2026 protests and U.S.-Israeli strikes. The measure, coordinated through the Supreme National Security Council and Ministry of Information and Communications Technology, cut international traffic by over 97 percent at peak to limit information flow and coordination. Partial restoration began in May following a presidential directive, yet access remains filtered, whitelisted in many regions, and subject to ongoing price hikes and Starlink enforcement actions. Traders weigh the regime’s established technical kill-switch capabilities, developed with external partners, against economic costs exceeding billions of rials daily and the potential for renewed escalation tied to protests, sanctions, or military developments before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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