Abdul El-Sayed holds an 87.5% implied probability as the Genesee County winner in Michigan’s 2026 Senate race, while Mike Rogers sits at 10.5%. El-Sayed secured the Democratic nomination in the August 4 primary with 48.5% statewide, prevailing in a tight contest against Haley Stevens after Mallory McMorrow’s withdrawal. Genesee County, anchored by Flint and long a Democratic stronghold, aligns with El-Sayed’s base of support from public-health experience, progressive platform, and recent endorsements such as AFSCME. Statewide polling through early September shows El-Sayed leading or tied with Rogers in a toss-up general election, with stronger Democratic performance expected in urban and industrial counties like Genesee. Rogers, the unopposed Republican nominee and Trump-endorsed former congressman, maintains limited crossover appeal there despite fundraising strength. Minor candidates and “other” options reflect the binary major-party focus in county-level outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Abdul El-Sayed (D)
87%
Mike Rogers (R)
11%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Abdul El-Sayed (D)
$122 Vol.
87%
Mike Rogers (R)
$30 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Genesee County in the general election for United States Senator from Michigan, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Genesee County.Abdul El-Sayed holds an 87.5% implied probability as the Genesee County winner in Michigan’s 2026 Senate race, while Mike Rogers sits at 10.5%. El-Sayed secured the Democratic nomination in the August 4 primary with 48.5% statewide, prevailing in a tight contest against Haley Stevens after Mallory McMorrow’s withdrawal. Genesee County, anchored by Flint and long a Democratic stronghold, aligns with El-Sayed’s base of support from public-health experience, progressive platform, and recent endorsements such as AFSCME. Statewide polling through early September shows El-Sayed leading or tied with Rogers in a toss-up general election, with stronger Democratic performance expected in urban and industrial counties like Genesee. Rogers, the unopposed Republican nominee and Trump-endorsed former congressman, maintains limited crossover appeal there despite fundraising strength. Minor candidates and “other” options reflect the binary major-party focus in county-level outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Genesee County in the general election for United States Senator from Michigan, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Genesee County.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Genesee County.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 1:28 PM ET
Volume
$152End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 1:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Genesee County in the general election for United States Senator from Michigan, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Genesee County.Abdul El-Sayed holds an 87.5% implied probability as the Genesee County winner in Michigan’s 2026 Senate race, while Mike Rogers sits at 10.5%. El-Sayed secured the Democratic nomination in the August 4 primary with 48.5% statewide, prevailing in a tight contest against Haley Stevens after Mallory McMorrow’s withdrawal. Genesee County, anchored by Flint and long a Democratic stronghold, aligns with El-Sayed’s base of support from public-health experience, progressive platform, and recent endorsements such as AFSCME. Statewide polling through early September shows El-Sayed leading or tied with Rogers in a toss-up general election, with stronger Democratic performance expected in urban and industrial counties like Genesee. Rogers, the unopposed Republican nominee and Trump-endorsed former congressman, maintains limited crossover appeal there despite fundraising strength. Minor candidates and “other” options reflect the binary major-party focus in county-level outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Genesee County in the general election for United States Senator from Michigan, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Genesee County.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Genesee County.
Volume
$152End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 1:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Abdul El-Sayed holds an 87.5% implied probability as the Genesee County winner in Michigan’s 2026 Senate race, while Mike Rogers sits at 10.5%. El-Sayed secured the Democratic nomination in the August 4 primary with 48.5% statewide, prevailing in a tight contest against Haley Stevens after Mallory McMorrow’s withdrawal. Genesee County, anchored by Flint and long a Democratic stronghold, aligns with El-Sayed’s base of support from public-health experience, progressive platform, and recent endorsements such as AFSCME. Statewide polling through early September shows El-Sayed leading or tied with Rogers in a toss-up general election, with stronger Democratic performance expected in urban and industrial counties like Genesee. Rogers, the unopposed Republican nominee and Trump-endorsed former congressman, maintains limited crossover appeal there despite fundraising strength. Minor candidates and “other” options reflect the binary major-party focus in county-level outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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