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Politics·Brazil

São Paulo Governor Election Winner

icon for São Paulo Governor Election Winner
Politics·Brazil

São Paulo Governor Election Winner

Tarcísio de Freitas 94%

Fernando Haddad 4.0%

Erika Hilton <1%

Kim Kataguiri <1%

Polymarket

$279,049 Vol.

Tarcísio de Freitas 94%

Fernando Haddad 4.0%

Erika Hilton <1%

Kim Kataguiri <1%

Polymarket

$279,049 Vol.

icon for Tarcísio de Freitas

Tarcísio de Freitas

$123,014 Vol.

94%

icon for Fernando Haddad

Fernando Haddad

$46,886 Vol.

4%

icon for Erika Hilton

Erika Hilton

$22,704 Vol.

1%

icon for Kim Kataguiri

Kim Kataguiri

$75,777 Vol.

<1%

icon for Márcio França

Márcio França

$10,668 Vol.

<1%

The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial race, scheduled for October 4, as the incumbent Republicans governor seeking reelection. Recent polls from July and August 2026, including Genial/Quaest and Ideia/ACSP surveys, show him ahead of Fernando Haddad by margins of 15 to 17 points in first-round voting intentions, with support in the 41–50% range versus 26–33% for the PT challenger. This positioning reflects de Freitas’s established voter base in Brazil’s largest state, party alignment advantages, and the fragmented field of lower-polling opponents such as Erika Hilton, Kim Kataguiri, and Márcio França. Trader consensus at 93.5% for de Freitas aligns with these consistent polling trends and the structural benefits of incumbency. Late developments including scandals, health issues, or major shifts in national political alliances could still influence final turnout and runoff dynamics.

The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$279,049
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial race, scheduled for October 4, as the incumbent Republicans governor seeking reelection. Recent polls from July and August 2026, including Genial/Quaest and Ideia/ACSP surveys, show him ahead of Fernando Haddad by margins of 15 to 17 points in first-round voting intentions, with support in the 41–50% range versus 26–33% for the PT challenger. This positioning reflects de Freitas’s established voter base in Brazil’s largest state, party alignment advantages, and the fragmented field of lower-polling opponents such as Erika Hilton, Kim Kataguiri, and Márcio França. Trader consensus at 93.5% for de Freitas aligns with these consistent polling trends and the structural benefits of incumbency. Late developments including scandals, health issues, or major shifts in national political alliances could still influence final turnout and runoff dynamics.

The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$279,049
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"São Paulo Governor Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Tarcísio de Freitas" at 94%, followed by "Fernando Haddad" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 94¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "São Paulo Governor Election Winner" has generated $279K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "São Paulo Governor Election Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "São Paulo Governor Election Winner" is "Tarcísio de Freitas" at 94%, meaning the market assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Fernando Haddad" at 4%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "São Paulo Governor Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.