Putin has repeatedly rejected direct talks with Zelenskyy absent major Ukrainian concessions on territory and neutrality, most recently stating in June 2026 that a meeting serves "no point" for now. Zelenskyy’s June open letter proposing a neutral-site summit for a full ceasefire produced no reciprocal movement, with Russia continuing to condition any engagement on achieving core military objectives. US-mediated channels and Trump administration pressure have sustained indirect diplomacy and temporary ceasefires, yet these have not translated into leader-level contact. Ongoing battlefield dynamics, including Ukraine’s reported territorial gains into August, further shape trader assessments of near-term diplomatic breakthroughs. Any handshake would require a significant shift in Russian preconditions or external mediation momentum before the market’s resolution window closes.