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Politics·Cavite

Philippines, Cavite 4th Congressional District Special Election Winner

icon for Philippines, Cavite 4th Congressional District Special Election Winner
Politics·Cavite

Philippines, Cavite 4th Congressional District Special Election Winner

Jennifer Austria Barzaga 97.4%

Raul Rex Del Rosario Mangubat <1%

Leysander Aguilar Ordenes <1%

Jacinto Bautista Frani Jr. <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Jennifer Austria Barzaga 97.4%

Raul Rex Del Rosario Mangubat <1%

Leysander Aguilar Ordenes <1%

Jacinto Bautista Frani Jr. <1%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Jennifer Austria Barzaga

Jennifer Austria Barzaga

$4,229 Vol.

97%

icon for Raul Rex Del Rosario Mangubat

Raul Rex Del Rosario Mangubat

$1,123 Vol.

1%

icon for Leysander Aguilar Ordenes

Leysander Aguilar Ordenes

$779 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jacinto Bautista Frani Jr.

Jacinto Bautista Frani Jr.

$829 Vol.

<1%

icon for Marvin Opamin Dupal-ag

Marvin Opamin Dupal-ag

$863 Vol.

<1%

A special election is currently scheduled for August 29, 2026 to fill the 4th congressional district seat of Cavite in the Philippine House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.comelec.gov.ph/.Jennifer Austria Barzaga maintains a commanding lead in the August 29, 2026 special election for Cavite's 4th congressional district seat, vacated after the expulsion of former representative Kiko Barzaga. As Dasmariñas mayor and a prior district representative, she benefits from the Barzaga family's established local networks and voter base across Dasmariñas, Amadeo, Indang, Tanza, and Trece Martires. The five-candidate field, including Raul Rex Del Rosario Mangubat and Leysander Aguilar Ordenes, has not generated notable shifts in positioning ahead of the vote. Trader consensus at 97% reflects this structural advantage in a district with strong incumbent-family continuity. Late developments such as turnout swings or unforeseen endorsements could narrow the margin, though significant barriers remain given the family's entrenched support.

A special election is currently scheduled for August 29, 2026 to fill the 4th congressional district seat of Cavite in the Philippine House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.comelec.gov.ph/.
Volume
$7,823
End Date
Aug 29, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is currently scheduled for August 29, 2026 to fill the 4th congressional district seat of Cavite in the Philippine House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.comelec.gov.ph/.
A special election is currently scheduled for August 29, 2026 to fill the 4th congressional district seat of Cavite in the Philippine House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.comelec.gov.ph/.Jennifer Austria Barzaga maintains a commanding lead in the August 29, 2026 special election for Cavite's 4th congressional district seat, vacated after the expulsion of former representative Kiko Barzaga. As Dasmariñas mayor and a prior district representative, she benefits from the Barzaga family's established local networks and voter base across Dasmariñas, Amadeo, Indang, Tanza, and Trece Martires. The five-candidate field, including Raul Rex Del Rosario Mangubat and Leysander Aguilar Ordenes, has not generated notable shifts in positioning ahead of the vote. Trader consensus at 97% reflects this structural advantage in a district with strong incumbent-family continuity. Late developments such as turnout swings or unforeseen endorsements could narrow the margin, though significant barriers remain given the family's entrenched support.

A special election is currently scheduled for August 29, 2026 to fill the 4th congressional district seat of Cavite in the Philippine House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.comelec.gov.ph/.
Volume
$7,823
End Date
Aug 29, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is currently scheduled for August 29, 2026 to fill the 4th congressional district seat of Cavite in the Philippine House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.comelec.gov.ph/.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Philippines, Cavite 4th Congressional District Special Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jennifer Austria Barzaga" at 97%, followed by "Raul Rex Del Rosario Mangubat" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 97¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Philippines, Cavite 4th Congressional District Special Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 24, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Philippines, Cavite 4th Congressional District Special Election Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Philippines, Cavite 4th Congressional District Special Election Winner" is "Jennifer Austria Barzaga" at 97%, meaning the market assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Raul Rex Del Rosario Mangubat" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Philippines, Cavite 4th Congressional District Special Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.